Prognosticators Believe Dems Sweep Top Of Ticket, Republicans Narrowly Retain House

(Source: MIRS.news, Published 10/14/2026) If the majority of the 203 political junkies who filled out the MIRS Master Prognosticator contest are correct, the Democrats will retain control of all four statewide constitutional offices, Abdul El-Sayed will be Michigan's next U.S. Senator, Democrats will pick up one state Senate seat and Republicans will narrowly retain control of the House, 56-54.

The prognosticators also predict U.S. Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte) will retain his 7th Congressional seat, U.S. Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) will retain her seat in the 8th District and Michael Bouchard will be the next member of Congress from the 10th District.

The jump ball is the 4th Congressional District seat. Exactly 101 people believe U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Zeeland) will retain his seat, while 101 believe he'll be unseated by state Sen. Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo).

MIRS invited its subscribers and, later, its social media followers to participate in a contest to see who could correctly predict who would win 30 executive and legislative races in Michigan politics. The contest started Oct. 9 and ended at 6 p.m. today. More than 200 participated for a chance to win a Meijer gas card, a trophy and the title of Master Prognosticator for 2026. Individual results will not be released unless the eventual winner would like to publicly reveal his/her picks only after all the results are announced.

However, in the aggregate, the results showed only 15 (7.39%) of the 203 who participated in the survey believe U.S. Rep. John James (R-Shelby Township) will win the governor's race. The remaining 188 (92.61%) said they thought Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson would be victorious.

Moving down the ballot, 84.16% said Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II would defeat Macomb County Clerk Tony Forlini for Secretary of State. A 60.70% majority said they thought Washtenaw County Prosecutor Eli SAVIT would defeat Eaton County Prosecutor Doug Lloyd in the Attorney General's race.

A 66.01% majority said El-Sayed would defeat Republican Mike Rogers for U.S. Senate.

U.S. Rep. Jack Bergman (R-Watersmeet) was predicted to retain his seat by 84.73% of respondents. A 51.23% majority believe Barrett will defeat Democrat Will Lawrence. Only 7 people (3.47%) believe 8th Congressional District candidate Thomas Smith will beat McDonald Rivet. Bouchard was favored to win by 55.28% of respondents.

On the legislative races, the only state Senate seat prognosticators believe will go from red to blue is the 30th state Senate seat, where 56.72% believe Rep. Carol Glanville (D-Grand Rapids) will defeat Sen. Mark Huizenga (R-Walker).

On the House side, 81% believe Democrat Sarah Pounds will beat Republican Roman Gaskey in the 54th, while 64.85% of respondents believe former Rep. Jim Haadsma will win back his seat over Rep. Steve Frisbie (R-Battle Creek) in the 44th.

Look at the full results here.