Michigan's Blue Wave Wasn't As Blue As Nation's, Grossmann Suggests
(Source: MIRS.news, Published 11/10/2026) Despite Democrats' sweeping victories in Michigan last week, the state shifted less toward Democrats than the nation as a whole, leaving it slightly to the right of the national electorate, according to Michigan State University political scientist Matt Grossmann.
Grossmann, director of MSU's Institute for Public Policy and Social Research (IPPSR), told attendees during a Tuesday presentation at the House Office Building that Michigan's election results were more reflective of a nationwide Democratic shift than a fundamental change in the state's political leanings.
"Obviously, Democrats won Michigan, so sometimes people reject my saying it this way. But Michigan still moved to the right of the nation nationally because we did not move as much to the Democrats as other states did," Grossmann said.
He pointed to Michigan's congressional vote, which was more Republican than the national congressional vote, although he expects the state to remain competitive in future elections.
"Don't worry, we'll still be a swing state. You'll still see all of the ads," Grossmann said.
Citing an analysis from a Democratic consulting firm, he said a significantly larger share of voters who supported President Donald Trump in 2024 stayed home this year compared to those who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris.
In Michigan's U.S. Senate race, the analysis found more Harris voters crossed over to support Republican Mike Rogers than Trump voters who supported Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.
The results also appeared to be driven more by differences in voter turnout, he said, rather than by voters switching parties.
He described the election as one of the most nationally uniform shifts in recent history, with congressional districts across the country moving roughly 14 percentage points toward Democrats relative to the 2024 presidential election.
That increasingly nationalized electorate also means state lawmakers may have less control over their own electoral fortunes, he said, with voters relying more heavily on their opinions of the president than their evaluations of state government.
Grossmann noted that only a small minority of Michigan voters knew Republicans controlled the state House and Democrats controlled the state Senate heading into the election.
Still, he cautioned against using last week's results to predict what will happen in 2028, noting that the historical correlation between midterm results and the subsequent presidential election is essentially zero.
The discussion also turned to whether Michigan’s election calendar and ballot-handling rules need further changes.
The presentation also featured Lansing City Clerk Chris Swope and former Michigan Elections Director Chris Thomas, who discussed election administration and potential legislative changes.
Swope said Lansing experienced approximately a 15% turnout increase compared to four years ago, representing roughly 6,000 additional voters.
He also raised concerns about absentee ballots being deposited in the wrong jurisdiction's drop boxes, estimating Lansing received between 40 and 50 such ballots during the election.
Swope urged lawmakers to consider accepting ballots based on their postmarked dates and moving Michigan's August primary to May, as proposed under a Senate-passed package SB 691 through SB 699 spearheaded by Sen. Sam Singh (D-East Lansing).
"You have a primary and then you barely have a chance to learn who the candidates are," Swope said. "They don't have the chance to put up a ground game, especially if they are a come-from-behind winner . . . they needed some ramp-up time."
Thomas, meanwhile, praised election officials for administering a smooth election despite significant changes to Michigan's voting laws in recent years.
He estimated approximately 4.84 million Michiganders voted this year, about 300,000 more than in 2022 and 500,000 more than in 2018.
