40% Of Likely Primary Voters Estimated To Have Voted

(Source: MIRS.news, Published 07/21/2026) With two weeks left before the Aug. 4 primary, nearly 40% of expected voters have already filled out a ballot, including some still in the mail or received but not processed yet by local clerks, projected Mark Grebner of Practical Political Data Tuesday afternoon.

The Bureau of Elections reported Tuesday that 572,553 voters have cast ballots that have been received by their local clerks. But Grebner said that number likely doesn't include what clerks received in the mail by Tuesday or the number of ballots that are somewhere between a mailbox and the postal carrier.

As someone who follows such things, Grebner estimates about 200,000 new, completed absentee ballots flow into clerks' offices a week and will increase as Election Day nears.

Grebner estimates around 2.2 million Michigan residents will cast ballots by Aug. 4. In 2022, the final raw number was 2,037,655 folks voting in a gubernatorial primary. In 2018, that number was 2,127,998. In 2014, it was 1,130,983, but there were no contested races at the top of the ticket for either party. In 2010, it was 1,577,206.

The slight uptick is coming from the passed 2022 constitutional amendment that requires those on the permanent absentee ballot list to be mailed ballots as opposed to just applications.

That change is driving up the number of ballots already received by clerks. As of July 18, 2022, 1,167,369 ballots were requested by mail through the application process. As of Tuesday, 1,967,288 are simply receiving ballots automatically due to the change in the constitution.

As a result, while 398,756 were received by clerks by July 18, 2022; the number received as of Tuesday is much higher, 572,553.

Comparing the two numbers, Grebner said, is like comparing potatoes and fries. That said, “Mailing out ballots is a pretty good get-out-the-vote technique.”

Based on what he's seen, Grebner projects that of the people whose votes are returned to the clerks' offices, 57% participated in the Democratic primary and 43% in the Republican primary.

According to the Bureau of Elections, early voting sites open Saturday, July 25 and will remain open at least eight hours every day through Sunday, Aug. 2.