(Source: MIRS.news, Published 10/25/2024) At the end of a presidential election cycle, most Americans are inundated by claims from both the Republican and Democrat nominees that they and their party are the best friends of pocketbook conscious voters.
Claims are one thing, but what does actual historical economic data tell us about the difference between the two parties on jobs, gross domestic product, stock market gains, inflation, median household income and the national debt?
For purposes of comparison, MIRS attempted to look at data going back to 1945.
Why 1945?
Between 1945 and the present there were seven Republican administrations: Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush and Donald Trump and seven Democratic administrations: Harry S. Truman, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
Note: On median household income comparisons, we had to rely on data compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis dating back to 1953 forward.
Here’s what the data showed and the source information for the data:
Jobs Created – Winner – Democratic Presidents
One of the signs of a truly healthy economy is robust job creation. In this category, it wasn’t even close.
Democratic administrations created 69.9 million jobs between 1945 and 2023. By comparison, Republican administrations created 39.6 million jobs. In the jobs created category, Democratic presidents outperformed their GOP colleagues by more than 75%.
For Democrats, the biggest job creation came under President Bill Clinton at 18.6 million jobs while the GOP’s top job performer was Ronald Reagan at 16.5 million jobs. The worse performing administrations were President John F. Kennedy (3 million) and Gerald Ford (1.1 million) both of whom served less than a full four-year term.
Source: howmuch.net – Fact Check: The Best & Worst Presidents for Job Growth Since WWII which relied on Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Gross Domestic Product Growth Rates – Winner – Democratic Presidents
Besides jobs created, another major economic factor is how much United States Gross Domestic Product increased during a president’s years in the oval office.
In this category, Democratic administrations again outperformed their GOP counterparts by having an annual average GDP growth rate of 3.07%. Republican presidents oversaw gross domestic product growth on an average annual basis of 2.7%.
The biggest gain for gross domestic product came during the administration of Lyndon Johnson who oversaw an economy that recorded an average annual GDP growth rate of 4.8%. The GOP’s top performer was Reagan, who saw an annual average GDP growth rate of 3.5%.
Bringing in the low side of the calculations were the administrations of George W. Bush (annual average GDP growth rate of 2.1%) and Barack Obama 1.6%.
Source: Investopedia, U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth By President, which relied on data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product).
Percent Increase In Stock Market Value – Winner – Democratic Presidents
The good news for the American economy, is that since 1945, the average increase in stock value during a president’s term is 61.3%.
On a party basis, Democratic presidents led the way by achieving an average stock market value increase of 73.25% compared to 49.4% by Republican presidents – a 48.3% advantage.
The big winner among presidents when it comes to stock market value gain was Clinton whose two terms saw the stock market’s value climb 226.6%. The largest stock market value gain by a Republican president was Reagan whose two terms saw a stock market value gain of 135.5%.
In the stock comparison, the worst stock performance occurred during George W. Bush’s administration when the market lost 21.8% of its value. The administration of President Richard Nixon also saw stock values decline by 15.7%.
Source: Yahoo Finance - How the Stock Market Performed Under Each President
Inflation – As Measured By The Consumer Price Index-U – Winner – Democratic Presidents
In the 2024 presidential election, inflation is once again an issue on voters’ minds.
Looking at performance going back to 1945 – Republican administrations oversaw an economy with slightly higher annual rates of inflation than their Democratic counterparts.
For the seven GOP presidents, the average annual rate of inflation was 4.068% while the seven Democratic presidents recorded an annual average inflation rate of 4.007%.
The administrations with the highest rate of inflation were Presidents Jimmy Carter (9.73%) and Gerald Ford (7.4%). The presidents with the lowest average annual rate of inflation were John F. Kennedy (1.16%) and Dwight Eisenhower (1.4%).
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U
Median Household Income – 1953 to 2023 – Winner Democratic Presidents
To calculate the gains or losses in income, we relied on data gathered and calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Economic Research Division and looked at income adjusted to 2023 dollars at the beginning of each president’s term and the end.
We subtracted the Real Median Household Income of the president’s first year in office from the Real Median Household Income of the president’s last year in office. We added up the results by party of the president to generate an average Median Household gain by dollar for both Republican presidents and Democratic presidents.
What we found was that from Eisenhower through Biden (2023) Democratic presidents saw an average Median Household Income gain of $5,815 while Republican presidents saw an average Median Household Income gain of $3,081.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Economic Research Division
Deficits/Debt by Party – Democratic Presidents Accumulated the Most
In the category of which party’s presidents tallied up the most in budget deficits, it’s Democrats by 6.14%.
Since 1945, Democratic presidents have a total of $13.34 trillion in deficits, while their Republican counterparts have had total deficits of $12.53 trillion. The biggest contributor to debt was Obama, who recorded total deficits of $6.78 trillion, followed by President Donald Trump at $6.6 trillion.
Source: The Balance – U.S. Budget Deficit by President
