Top 5 Senate Seats Most Likely To Flip
(Source: MIRS.news, Published 10/21/2026) Less than two weeks left until the General Election and the negative ads are running full blast in the last remaining competitive state Senate races that will determine whether Republicans can manage a 19-19 split or if Democrats can grow their majority to 22-16.
For as much as we'd like to announce some movement in these seats, the only change in our assessments from August we can responsibly report is that the Republicans' 12th District candidate John Goldwater, isn't running the type of campaign against Sen. Kevin Hertel (D-St. Clair Shores) that inspires confidence that a flip is possible.
Republicans ruffled some feathers with their recent ad that framed Hertel as a lifelong Lansing insider from a politically connected family, but there doesn't appear to be enough money behind this message to change the trajectory of the race.
As the lead sponsor for the data center tax break legislation, Hertel would seem to be vulnerable, but he appears to be running away from the politically charged issue by saying his bills created the types of consumer controls everyone is clamoring for.
With that, here's what we can report on the Top 5 Senate seats likely to flip.
1. 30th Senate District (Huizenga) R to D – *1
It's the tale of two narratives in this district, where Republicans still see the odds of saving Sen. Mark Huizenga (R-Walker) as a 50/50 proposition while Democrats wonder if Rep. Carol Glanville (D-Grand Rapids) will win by double digits. The two sides have spent dollar for dollar here since Labor Day, making it clear that the Senate's most expensive race isn't being surrendered by either side.
Will the heavy spending in the 4th Congressional District race with U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Zeeland) also make a difference? It seems inevitable that some voters will confuse the two candidates as ads blast through TVs in West Michigan.
2. 13th Senate District (Open, Bayer) D to R – *2
Republican interests don't see a problem with linking Sean Carlson, a former Huron Valley school board member, to an alleged sexual predator who the district used as a substitute teacher. They also question the circumstances behind him resigning from his Oakland County job, and whether he traveled a little too much on the public dime.
Fair or not, they wouldn't be matching the Democrats' spending if they didn't have a chance to steal one from the Democrats in this redrawn Sen. Rosemary Bayer (D-Keego Harbor) seat.
3. 9th Senate District (Webber) R to D – *3
The negative ads are coming fast and furious in this Oakland County seat, where Sen. Michael Webber (R-Rochester Hills) is being framed as a sellout to data center executives. Meanwhile, Democratic candidate Theresa Brooks, a physician, was accused in court documents of putting the “corporate bottom line before patients.” The message: “Don't let Theresa Brooks sell us out again.”
All this spells a competitive race, where Republicans and Democrats are both spending north of $1 million.
4. 32nd Senate District (Open, Bumstead) R to D – *4
Republicans are outspending Democrats $691,567 to $480,591 in this Muskegon district, according to AdImpact. They like their odds with Mason County Sheriff Kim Cole against Rebecca Amidon, with one GOP source questioning why the Senate Democratic Fund (SDF) was still spending here. Democrats still feel this race is a 50/50 proposition.
Dems made a late run against Cole with an ad that claims Cole will “screw us over to help himself," while Republicans are claiming Amidon, who doesn't hold a public office, is “reckless” and “wrong” for the state Senate.
Not sure how many attacks of this nature against a sitting sheriff will work, but let it be a social experiment.
5. 12th Senate District (Hertel) D to R – *5
Let's get this straight. A news outlet invites candidates for a debate, and it's the underfunded challenger who avoids the conversation?
The only thing stranger than Republican John Goldwater blowing off an opportunity to debate Sen. Kevin Hertel (D-St. Clair Shores) is Hertel claiming he has yet to meet his GOP opponent face to face. He hasn't run into him anywhere. Seems hard to believe.
It's hard to take this race seriously, even though the district's base numbers tell us we should. Republicans are down to spending $10,000 a week on this race, while Hertel and Democrats are spending $300,000+ next week. Nothing about those dynamics tell you this race is competitive.
On The Radar
35th District – Jason Tunney is screaming, “What about me?” The Senate Republican Campaign Committee and Tunney seem to be in a stare-down over who is going to spend the first dollar in this Tri-cities district, and now it's so late in the cycle that it feels like anything spent against Sen. Chedrick Greene (D-Saginaw) would be a waste. Greene received 12,092 more votes than Tunney in the May special election and then 17,207 more votes in the primary. Doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.
4th District — Marginally more money is being spent in Sen. Darrin Camilleri (D-Trenton)'s Downriver district than in SD-35, which is something you probably didn't think would happen 12 months ago. We didn't, anyway. Republican Marcie Grzywacz is highly regarded in GOP circles for the amount of effort she's putting into this race, even if the odds of success are long.
38th District – If independent Sara Cambensy can somehow manage 20% as an independent candidate, she should declare victory. Even double digits in such a partisan environment may inspire other candidates down the line to give this type of non-partisan bid a try.
