Top 10 House Seats Most Likely To Flip

(Source: MIRS.news, Published 10/09/2026) With 25 days until Election Day, the number of House races the caucuses are playing in is shrinking, not expanding.

Money is tighter than in past cycles, especially with one of the nation’s most expensive U.S. Senate races in Michigan and an open governor’s race demanding more in-state resources since the Republican Governors Association appears to have pulled out.

“House Republicans can't afford to see gubernatorial nominee John James (R-Shelby Township) tank. History shows that once a winning gubernatorial candidate hits 56%, it becomes landslide territory. The losing candidate's party averages eight House losses.

Republicans and Democrats are playing with a finite amount of resources, so each caucus is making calculated decisions on which districts are really in play, and what would be nice to have.

Take House Speaker Matt Hall (R-Richland Township)'s 42nd House District, for example. House Democrats would like nothing more than to knock off the Speaker, but the caucus on Thursday took $200,000 off its initial mid-September $700,000 reservation and moved the money to the Holland-based 86th District and the Jackson-based 46th, based on tracking from AdImpact.

Democrats got Hall's attention, but Hall & Co. responded by flooding mailboxes with at least eight mailers and dropping a combined $138,000 on TV advertising. The pro-Nick ROWE ads aren't supposed to hit until next Tuesday, so could that spending be ratcheted down a little further?

We'll see.

House Republicans have adopted the general Michigan GOP strategy of not projecting spending with reservations leading up to Nov. 3. They've opted, instead, to purchase spots on a week-to-week basis.

Remember, Democrats have to flip three seats to manage shared power and four seats to win the gavel. If there's going to be a wave election, they're becoming content to let the wave carry in the rest.

1. 54th House District (Open, Steele) R to D – *1

Since Labor Day, Republicans have steadily spent about $30,000 a week on Roman Gaskey, who has turned out to be a pretty good candidate. Gaskey is swimming upstream in an open seat against another very good candidate in Sarah Pounds, but the R's unwillingness to let go of the rope here begs the question – Do they really think the youngster can pull this off or do they want the Democrats to think he can still pull this off?

2. 109th House District (Bohnak) R to D – *4

Internal polling shows Abdul El-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson will win Marquette, home of Northern Michigan University. If it wasn't for Rep. Karl Bohnak (R-Negaunee), this would be a lost cause for House R's. It's only because the former meteorologist has incredible name ID that it's even close. Democrats have a decision to make: Throw more money into boosting Anna Rink's name ID or just count on the top of the ticket to carry her over. AdImpact numbers show they haven't made up their minds, yet.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer won with 55% in 2022 up here. Jenn Hill won with 53%. Likewise, Bohnak only outperformed Trump by 2 points in 2024. Will Benson get 55% in this Marquette-based seat? You can make up your own mind. Given the enthusiasm gap, we're moving it up.

3. 44th House District (Frisbie) R to D – *2

There's an exception to every rule and this is one of them. Republicans are pushing all of their chips on the table to save Rep. Steve Frisbie (R-Battle Creek) with $2.5 million in spending and reservations up to Nov. 3. Since former Rep. Jim Haadsma has been a man on a mission since 2025, there's no reason to believe the Democrats will back off their projected spend of $1.8 million.

Total projected spend in this Battle Creek district to date: $4.3 million. On a state House race. It's expensive, but this district feels like the Republicans' beachhead. Lose the 44th, and it's split power.

4. 46th House District (Schmaltz) R to D – *3

Jackson loves Kathy Schmaltz (R-Jackson), two points more than President Donald Trump in 2024, as it turns out. I guess a couple of decades on the local TV news will do that. Republicans are putting $2 million behind their incumbent as of now, showing us that this seat is their second beachhead. Lose Schmaltz and they lose the House.

Are Democrats ready to match them here? As of this past week, they were. They're not showing their cards after that.

5. 68th House District (Martin) R to D – *8

The seat that was only on each caucus's watch list at the beginning of the cycle could prove to be among the most critical. Rep. David Martin (R-Davison) won with 54% of the vote regardless of whether Trump or Whitmer won this Genesee County district. But Matt Schlinker is apparently a door-knocking machine and the hospitals' $1 million spend in support of the Democratic nominee has prompted the Republican State Leadership Committee to put in $1 million of their own.

Internal polling shows this one is close. Martin isn't winning with 54% this time.

6. 55th House District (Tisdel) R to D – *NR

Rep. Mark Tisdel (R-Rochester)'s general popularity in Rochester/Rochester Hills has kept him off the list until now, with Democrats, the hospitals and their Democrat Alex Hawkins spending about $500,000 more than the three-term incumbent. This was part of John James' congressional district. James, as a congressional candidate, won with 50.80% in 2022 and re-election with 51% in 2024, so not exactly a landslide, but maybe good enough to prevent Benson from getting 56% here?

History shows that no Republican polls better in this district than Tisdel. The question is whether that will be enough in 2026.

7. 86th House District (DeBoer) R to D – *6

Without question, the Dutch in West Michigan aren't huge fans of Donald Trump and they're growing fond of Abdul El-Sayed. Joseph McClusky has $739,000 in advertising spending and reservations supporting him, compared with $367,000 supporting DeBoer. The situation isn't so dire that Republicans feel like they need to back up the truck to bail out DeBoer. The former Holland mayor got 56% in 2022 and 2024 for her state House bid, two points better than incumbent U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Zeeland). El-Sayed could win Holland. It's possible Huizenga could lose the city, too. But erasing a built-in 56% for DeBoer is a harder ask.

8. 31st House District (Miller, Open) D to R – *5

This is the Republicans' best chance for a pickup. Downriver isn't exactly flocking to El-Sayed like other parts of the state, but the Democrats' Shannon Dare Wayne has a $878,299-to-$507,327 TV spending advantage on Republican prize recruit Laura Perry. If the local organizers can keep Republican enthusiasm up and drive turnout, this has the potential to be a surprise pickup with fellow Downriver Republican incumbents Jamie Thompson (R-Brownstown) and James DeSana (R-Carleton) no longer on this list.

9. 27th House District (Linting) R to D – *7

This Downriver seat falls a little further on the list, despite Jaime Churches possibly being the House Democrats' hardest worker. The issue set for her campaign isn't working for Churches like it did when she won in 2022. At that time, abortion was on the ballot, and she was running against a man unsympathetic to the abortion access issue. El-Sayed’s Muslim faith is a drag for him with some voters in this blue-collar district. Beyond that, internal polling not only shows Rep. Rylee Linting (R-Wyandotte) up a few points, but her favorable numbers up 10 points on her unfavorables.

10. 61st House District (Mentzer) D to R – *NR

If Speaker Hall feels visiting Robert Wojtowicz, as he did earlier this week, is worth his time, we should probably not discount the Chippewa Valley School Board member. Reports are that he's running a much better campaign than in 2024 when he lost by 721 votes. It's worth repeating that El-Sayed didn't do well in Macomb Township and the R's are spending around $200,000 here this year. In ‘24 they spent next to nothing when the Dems spent $3.6 million. This year, the Dems aren't blowing obscene amounts of money on network TV, but they still have $663,000 on Mentzer.

* = Previous rankings appear after each district; NR means not previously ranked

Dropped Out: 58th House District (Robinson) – Democrats have spent literally nothing here. If Katrina Manetta had been the candidate in Sterling Heights in 2022, things might have played out differently.

Other Republican seats to keep an eye on: Rep. Tom Kuhn (R-Troy)'s 57th House District. El-Sayed connects a little better in Troy and Tom Turner is a good candidate. Possible surprise here . . . but I suppose we've said that before.

Democrats appear to have lost interest (if they had any to begin with) in Rep. Timothy Beson (R-Bay City)'s 96th House District, Rep. Jamie Thompson (R-Brownstown)'s 28th House District and Rep. Ann Bollin (R-Brighton)'s 49th.

Republicans are no longer talking about Rep. Mai Xiong (D-Warren)'s 13th House District or the open 2nd with Dem nominee Joanna Whaley as realistic possibilities.