MSU Poll: Dems Lead, But Rogers Running Stronger Than James

(Source: MIRS.news, Published 09/01/2026) Democratic nominee Jocelyn Benson is holding a larger lead in the governor's race than Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed has in his contest, according to a new Michigan State University (MSU) poll that shows GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers is performing better than gubernatorial nominee John James.

The latest MSU State of the State Survey has Benson leading James, 52% to 43%, among likely voters, while El-Sayed leads Rogers by a tighter 50% to 45%.

Among registered voters, Benson's advantage is 49% to 39%, while El-Sayed leads Rogers, 48% to 44%.

In other words, El-Sayed is drawing nearly the same level of support as Benson. Rogers is simply picking up more votes than James.

“Rogers is running ahead of James, with more success among independents. But El-Sayed is not really underperforming Benson; he's just relying on a younger coalition,” said Matt Grossmann, director of MSU's Institute for Public Policy and Social Research.

That younger coalition could become an important piece of the Senate race over the next two months. MSU reported El-Sayed is running ahead of Benson among likely voters younger than 45, while Benson does better among older voters. The university did not release the specific percentages by age.

The findings reinforce a generational divide seen during El-Sayed's Democratic primary victory, when younger voters provided a critical piece of his support.

The poll also identifies what could be a significant obstacle for El-Sayed: his religion.

Thirty-seven percent of those surveyed said they would be less likely to support a candidate who is Muslim. El-Sayed would be the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate.

At the same time, one of Rogers' most prominent political allies could carry baggage of his own.

Fifty-five percent said President Donald Trump endorsing a candidate would make them less likely to support that person, compared to 27% who said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to back the candidate — a 28-percentage-point net negative.

Trump has endorsed both Rogers and James.

The results come on the heels of an EPIC-MRA survey conducted Aug. 22-28 that also showed Democrats leading both marquee statewide races, although by smaller margins. That poll had Benson and El-Sayed each holding 4-percentage-point advantages over their Republican opponents.

The new MSU numbers also represent a considerably different political landscape from the university's previous gubernatorial survey in March, although the results aren't directly comparable.

That earlier poll tested a three-way race between Benson, James and then-independent candidate Mike Duggan, with 27% of the electorate-weighted sample still undecided. Benson had 30.1%, James 22.9% and Duggan 20%.

The August survey was conducted Aug. 10-20, shortly after the primary, through a YouGov online panel of 1,000 Michigan adults. The unweighted sample included 913 registered voters and 779 likely voters. MSU did not publish a margin of error with Tuesday's release and said the complete State of the State Survey data will not be released publicly until February 2027.