Michigan's Population Isn't Growing; Percentage Of Voters Is

(Source: MIRS.news, Published 11/02/2026) Michigan's population has grown less than 2% since 2000, but participation in its gubernatorial elections has jumped nearly 40% since 2002 — and political analyst Mark Grebner expects another turnout record Tuesday.

With more than 2.3 million ballots already cast, Grebner, of Practical Political Data (PPD), projects total turnout will reach 4.6 million, surpassing the 2022 record by nearly 100,000 voters.

The projected turnout would be nearly 43% higher than in 2002, a striking increase in a state whose population has barely grown.

The milestone wouldn't necessarily be noteworthy if Michigan's population were booming as it did between 1950 and 1980, when it jumped from 6.4 million to 9.3 million souls.

But population growth has slowed considerably. Since 2000, Michigan's population has increased from about 9.9 million to 10.1 million, a gain of just 1.9%, according to U.S. Census Bureau counts and estimates.

Voter turnout has grown much faster. In 2022, 4,500,400 people voted, a 39.8% increase over the 3,219,864 who voted in 2002. If Grebner is correct and 4.6 million people cast ballots by 8 p.m. Tuesday, turnout would exceed the 2022 record by nearly 100,000 votes and surpass the 2002 total by 42.9%.

Michigan's total population has barely grown since 2000, but substantially more residents are participating in gubernatorial elections.

The rise hasn't been gradual, either. More Michiganders voted in the 2002 election that gave Jennifer Granholm her first term as governor (3,219,864) than participated in the 2014 election that gave Rick Snyder his second term (3,188,956). See a spreadsheet of voter turnout in Michigan from 1948 to the present here.

So, what's causing this?

"It's an almost psychotic response to Donald Trump," Grebner said. "It's not necessarily the Trump supporters, it's the people who are not Trump supporters. They are so wound up about Trump they are casting ballots when they didn't make it a priority before."

Election reforms have played a smaller role, he said. Absentee voting has become more common, and voters on permanent absentee ballot lists automatically receive ballots. The massive amounts of money spent on recent elections have likely contributed, too, Grebner said.

Across the five gubernatorial elections from 1998 through 2014, turnout averaged 3,334,495. In the last two, when Trump was politically active, the average was 4,420,820. Grebner said there's no reason turnout in 2026 won't be higher than that.

So, what are the early turnout numbers showing?

Jonathan Chapman of Needtexting.com said early and absentee voting is up 8.1% among voters ages 18 to 29 compared with 2024, a presidential election year. It is up 7.9% among those ages 30 to 44 and 16.3% among those ages 45 to 64.

Among voters 65 and older, who account for 50% of early and absentee votes cast, participation is down 32.5 percentage points, Chapman said.

"The youth vote is not where I thought it would be," Chapman said. "With Abdul El-Sayed on the ballot, I thought we'd see a sharper increase in that voting block."

Of the 2.3 million Michiganders who have already voted, Chapman has classified 36% as strong or lean Republican, 35% as strong or lean Democratic and 28% as swing voters.

If turnout reaches 4.6 million, roughly half the projected voters have already cast ballots.

Bureau of Elections figures show 573,864 absentee ballots have yet to be returned. Among voters 65 and older who requested absentee ballots, 85% have returned them, compared with 53% of those ages 18 to 29. Among swing voters who requested absentee ballots, 37.7% have yet to return them.

Below is the ballot tracking information available on Chapman's site, Needtexting.com.