Impact Of Duggan's Candidacy Down Ballot

(Source: MIRS.news, Published 04/17/2026) Since the turn of the century, if a winning party's gubernatorial or presidential candidate managed at least 53 percent of the popular vote in a Michigan election, their entire slate of education board nominees all won.

From 2000 to 2024, Jennifer Granholm (2006), Barack Obama (2008, 2012), Rick Snyder (2010) and Gretchen Whitmer (2018, 2022) all won with at least 53 percent of the vote. In each of those elections, that candidate party's combined eight nominees for the Board of Education, University of Michigan Board of Regents, Michigan State Board of Trustees and Wayne State Board of Governors all won.

In those elections in which the winning party's top of ticket finished below 53 percent, that party's education board nominees saw mixed results. In fact, Snyder won in 2014 (50.92 percent), but Republicans lost all but one board post. In 2002, Granholm won the governorship (51.42 percent), but Democrats lost five of eight board slots.

The statistics are instructive as Michigan heads into a 2026 election in which it's highly doubtful either major party candidate will get to 53 percent, given that early poll results show independent candidate Mike Duggan is running a competitive race.

Michigan has had one election in the last 40 years in which a non-major party candidate finished with more than 10 percent of the vote — 1992 with gubernatorial candidate Ross Perot (19.30 percent). In that election, Democrat Bill Clinton won with 43.77 percent of the vote over George H.W. Bush (36.38 percent) and Democratic nominees for the education boards won seven of the eight posts.

Four years later, Perot ran again, but only managed 8.75 percent of the vote. Clinton won with 51.69 percent of the vote to Bob Dole's 38.48 percent and Democrats swept the education boards.

The upshot of the data shows the question isn't necessarily the percentage of the vote Duggan wins, but the percentage margin between the Democratic nominee and the Republican nominee.

The numbers show that in the last 25 years, a period of time in which elections have become increasingly partisan — if the Democratic nominee defeats the Republican nominee by at least nine percentage points — their education board nominees all win and vice versa.

The electorate of the 1980s and 1990s was very different, the numbers show. Even with Gov. John Engler winning reelection in 1994 and 1998 with more than 60 percent of the vote, Republicans only won six and five education board posts, respectively. In 1986, Gov. Jim Blanchard delivered arguably the biggest landslide in Michigan history by scoring 68.10 percent of the vote. Democrats only won five education boards.

View the spreadsheet compiled by MIRS here.

It's entirely possible Duggan will spur a wave of split-ticket voting, but if that were to happen, it would run counter to the recent historical trends.