If Primary Turnout Were General Election Votes, Dems Would Take House 74-36
- 5 days ago
- 3 min read
(Source: MIRS.news, Published 08/05/2026) More than 61% of Michigan voters who cast partisan ballots in Tuesday’s August primary chose the Democratic ballot, an enthusiasm advantage that appeared from the top of the ticket down to legislative races.
Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson received 313,392 more votes than the four candidates listed on the Republican gubernatorial ballot combined.
In response to those numbers, Rep. Matt Maddock (R-Milford) posted: “Ugh.”
If the party with higher primary turnout in each legislative district also won that district in the general election, Democrats would take the House 74-36 and the Senate 24-14.
The comparison is not a projection because contested primaries, uncontested races and crossover voting can significantly affect each party’s turnout.
But under that scenario, House Speaker Matt Hall (R-Richland Township), House Appropriations Committee Chair Ann Bollin (R-Brighton) and Maddock, the committee’s vice chair, would all lose, as would Rep. Bill G. Schuette (R-Midland) and eight other incumbents.
History shows that primary turnout is not a precise predictor of what will happen in November, although the comparison has come close in recent Senate elections.
In 2022, more voters cast Republican ballots in the August primary than Democratic ballots in 19 Senate districts. Democrats won the chamber 20-18 that fall.
In 2018, Republican primary turnout was higher in 21 Senate districts. Republicans won 22 seats in November. In both elections, the primary-turnout comparison differed from the general election result by only one seat.
The comparison has been more volatile in the House.
Republican state House primary turnout was higher in 62 districts in 2022, but Republicans won only 54 seats that fall, a difference of eight seats.
In 2018, Republican primary turnout was higher in exactly half of the state’s 110 House districts. Republicans went on to win 58 seats in November.
Still, the primary turnout figures cannot be completely discounted.
Tony Zammit, communications manager for the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research, noted that many Republicans ran in uncontested primaries. Even so, he said there is currently an enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats.
“Republicans need to present what their vision of the state is,” said Zammit, a former spokesperson for the Michigan Republican Party. “They have to show what Michigan is going to look like under Republican leadership, and they can’t fall back on the Trump playbook of the last couple of elections.”
Institute for Public Policy and Social Research (IPPSR) Director Matt Grossmann said greater enthusiasm among the party out of power is common during presidential midterm elections, particularly when the president’s approval rating is low, as President Donald Trump’s is now.
Asked whether higher Democratic turnout in 74 House districts could translate into 74 Democratic victories, Grossmann said, “You wouldn’t want to take the high side of that bet. It’s a sign of direction and strength, but nothing more. You can’t take that as a 1-to-1.”
Grossmann added that the Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission drew the legislative maps to reflect statewide political shifts. If there is movement at the top of the ticket, he said, it should also be reflected in House and Senate races.
Still, Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel Jr. could not help but get excited about the prospect of a 74-36 Democratic supermajority in the House.
“It looks like Matt Hall will be taking his road show to the minority leader’s office. Democrats are in play everywhere,” Hertel said.
House Republican Campaign Committee spokesperson Gus Portela sought to pump the brakes on that interpretation. Responding to a MIRS post on X, Portela noted that Democrats had a nearly $100 million U.S. Senate primary and multiple competitive House races.
“Republicans had largely uncontested races after Trump’s endorsements effectively settled the field, leaving plenty of room for crossover voting in the Democratic primary. Context matters,” he said.
