Grebner Raises Primary Turnout Forecast, Projects 55% Of Ballots Have Been Turned In

(Source: MIRS.news, Published 08/03/2026) More than 1.2 million Michigan voters have already cast ballots in Tuesday's primary, prompting longtime elections analyst Mark Grebner to raise his projected turnout to between 2.2 million and 2.3 million voters.

Grebner is projecting that 1.25 million ballots have been received by local clerks by end of business Monday, meaning the early vote will make up about 55% of the final vote.

Grebner, of Practical Political Data, previously estimated between 2.1 million and 2.2 million people would vote in the Aug. 4 primary. He said Monday's figures from the Bureau of Elections suggest absentee ballot returns are accelerating rather than tapering off before Election Day.

"My main thought is always worrying that my pre-election guesses might go awry," Grebner said. "But 2.2–2.3 million is looking pretty plausible. The return rate has ramped up, not dropped off. That suggests that Election Day is going to see a surge of voting, rather than a diminishing trickle."

As of Monday morning, 1,214,251 voters had cast ballots, representing 16.5 percent of Michigan's active registered voters, according to the Bureau of Elections.

That includes 138,680 people who voted in person during the statewide early voting period and 1,075,571 absentee ballots returned by mail, drop box or directly to a clerk's office.

In-person early voting increased 88.6 percent compared to the first statewide primary in which the option was available. A total of 73,531 people voted early in person before the August 2024 primary.

Sunday was the busiest day of the nine-day statewide early voting period, with 24,218 ballots cast.

Absentee voting is also running ahead of the last comparable midterm primary. The 1.08 million absentee ballots returned as of Monday morning represent a 21.5 percent increase from the 884,979 returned one day before the August 2022 primary.

Nearly 1.99 million voters requested absentee ballots for Tuesday's election, including more than 1.92 million voters enrolled on the permanent mail ballot list.

Grebner said the composition of those casting ballots also appears somewhat younger than in previous primary elections, a development he said could modestly benefit Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed.

"It looks moderately favorable for El-Sayed," Grebner said. "I'm seeing a moderate degree of shift toward younger voters compared with previous primaries."

The observation does not necessarily predict the final result, particularly with Grebner anticipating a substantial Election Day turnout that could alter the demographic makeup of the electorate.

Some communities continued offering early in-person voting Monday, including Lansing, Grand Blanc Township, Harrison Township, Erie Township, Luna Pier, Lincoln Park and Van Buren Township.

Election officials are advising voters who still have absentee ballots not to place them in the mail. Ballots should instead be delivered to the voters' local clerk or an authorized drop box by 8 p.m. Tuesday. Except for military and overseas ballots, those received after the deadline will not be counted.

Eligible residents may still register and vote at their city or township clerk's office with proof of residency.

Polling places will be open Tuesday from 7 a.m. until 8 p.m. Voters who are in line by 8 p.m. will be allowed to cast ballots.