Future Jobs Report Shows Age, AI Could Make Forecast Cloudy

(Source: MIRS.news, Published 09/04/2026) Michigan's job market is projected to barely grow over the next decade, but health care occupations are expected to remain in strong demand as the state's population ages.

New Career Outlook and Hot 50 reports project Michigan employment will increase by only about 18,320 jobs, or 0.4%, through 2034, according to W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research President Michael Horrigan.

Health care and social assistance are expected to account for the largest gains, adding about 66,270 jobs. Hospitals are projected to add 26,700 positions, ambulatory health care services 22,570 and nursing and residential care about 8,110.

Michigan Center for Data and Analytics Director Scott Powell said the reports are intended to help students and jobseekers identify careers likely to offer strong demand and wages.

“Our goal is to provide our education and workforce partners with the information they need to help Michiganders find their path to high-demand, high-wage jobs,” Powell said.

Other industries projected to grow include professional, scientific and technical services, which are expected to add 12,870 jobs, and social assistance, with another 9,900.

Some smaller industries are expected to grow much faster percentage-wise. Specialized design services are projected to increase 52%, educational support services 24.7%, transit and ground transportation 23.2% and heavy and civil engineering construction 23%.

Meanwhile, manufacturing is projected to lose about 31,120 jobs, retail 23,060 and transportation equipment manufacturing 21,840. Elementary and secondary schools also are expected to lose about 8,930 jobs.

Horrigan said Michigan's slow overall growth reflects two longstanding demographic pressures: Baby Boomers leaving the workforce and declining birth rates.

“That’s the retirement of the Boomers and the slow growth of, and the declining, birth rates,” he said.

Declining elementary school enrollment is one visible consequence, he said, helping explain the projected losses in education employment.

The same demographic change is helping drive demand for health care workers, although Horrigan cautioned that the industry's growth isn't entirely attributable to an aging population.

“There’s been growth in the health care industry, and it's particularly because the health care industry provides a lot of services up and down the age distribution,” he said.

One major wildcard in the projections is artificial intelligence.

Horrigan said forecasting models can account for occupations that already exist, but they can't anticipate entire categories of jobs that may be created by AI over the next decade. Nor is it clear how deeply AI will change existing professions.

“I think occupations that require a BA or higher, AI is most likely to be a companion or application you use,” he said.

Jobs centered on repetitive information gathering, documentation, data entry and other nonphysical tasks may face more significant disruption, Horrigan said.

For example, law firms may need fewer legal assistants, while technology employers could need fewer traditional coders but more project managers or workers responsible for validating AI-generated code.

He said the highest impact was going to be on high school prepared jobs that don’t require any physical labor, such as information gathering, documenting, recording, data entry.

He was in line with Andrew Yang’s predictions that repetitive task positions would be impacted the most.

“We may not need as many coders, but maybe we’re going to need more project managers of IT systems. Maybe we’re going to need more coding validators to validate the work of AI,” he said.