El-Sayed 24%, McMorrow 23.6%, Stevens 13.4% In New Poll; GOP Gov's Race Is Johnson 21.4%, James 20.2%

(Source: MIRS.news, Published 04/16/2026) Former Detroit public health official Abdul El-Sayed and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) are in a statistical dead heat in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary based on the results of a new public opinion poll released Thursday morning by Emerson College that has El-Sayed at 24% and McMorrow at 23.6%

U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) is trailing the two front-runners by seven points at 13.4% in the April 11-13 survey of 519 Democratic primary voters. A 36% plurality of voters are still undecided.

The margin of error is 4.3%. The survey was sponsored by WOOD-TV/Nexstar Media.

"We’re gaining ground because we’re talking about the issues that actually matter to Michiganders,” El-Sayed said. “This is about providing a vision for what we can have: standing up to corporations for the people to provide guaranteed healthcare, affordable housing, good schools and an economy that works for working people. Voters across the state understand that Michigan needs a Senator who isn’t bought and actually fights for the things we need and deserve. We’ll keep going everywhere and talking to everyone because we have the winning message. And we’re just getting started.”

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said he sees generational differences in the three-way primary: voters under 40 support El‑Sayed over McMorrow by a 17-point margin, 35% to 18%. Voters over 50 support McMorrow over El‑Sayed by a 12-point margin, 29% to 17%, with 13% supporting Stevens.

The poll’s methodology was immediately questioned by critics, including Stevens' pollster. Specifically, they note that the sample skewed “too young,” with 35% of respondents under the age of 40. In recent elections, such as 2018, voters under 40 accounted for roughly 21% of the electorate. Critics also argue that college-educated voters were oversampled by 10 percentage points.

Bryan Stryker, pollster for Stevens, posted on X: “Yeah, this poll methodology is irresponsibly flawed. Emerson should be ashamed to put it out. It massively underrepresents the older, non-college Democratic primary voters that support Haley Stevens the most in every poll.”

Heavy advertising spending by Perry Johnson in the Republican gubernatorial primary appears to be paying off, with Johnson holding a one-point lead over U.S. Rep. John James (R-Shelby Township) in what remains a statistical dead heat. Former Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox trails with 10% support.

Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson holds a commanding 51% majority among likely Democratic primary voters, according to the Emerson poll.

In the Republican U.S. Senate race, 55% of respondents support former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, while 38% remain undecided.

On the issues, a plurality of voters cite the economy as the top issue facing the state, followed by threats to democracy (15%), healthcare (10%), housing affordability (8%), education (8%), immigration (7%), and crime (5%).

Primary voters oppose U.S. military action against Iran by a margin of 53% to 39%, with 8% unsure.

Regarding data centers, 55% of voters oppose construction in or near their communities, while 27% support it and 18% are neutral or have no opinion. Democratic voters oppose data centers by a 41-point margin (63% to 22%), while Republican voters oppose them by 12 points (45% to 33%).

Full survey results are available here.