9 Big Questions Heading Into 2026

(Source: MIRS.news, Published 01/02/2026) It's officially 2026! We're electing a new governor, U.S. Senator, Secretary of State and attorney general.

Since we're looking at a solid 10 months of prognostications, let's get things started with nine questions that could set the table for what we'll see going forward.

1. Will President Donald Trump endorse in the Republican gubernatorial primary? First, we need to ask if Trump will be in a position to endorse this summer. Trump's polling numbers among Republican voters are still strong, but what happens if the Jeffrey Epstein Files solidly connect Trump to a child sex-trafficking ring? What if Trump can't deflect away from cost of living/health insurance anxiety?

Trump always seems to massage and message his way out of troubles among his die-hard followers. Let's assume he can do it again.

Trump wasn't thrilled about U.S. Rep. John James (R-Shelby Township) saying no to re-election in his competitive MI-10 seat, but what happens if James solidifies an insurmountable lead come July, like Tudor Dixon circa 2022?

Does he back a winner and take credit for pushing James over the top? Does he stay spiteful if the Republican field in MI-10 is floundering and take a walk? Maybe Mike Cox or Aric Nesbitt (R-Lawton) catch fire or . . .

2. Does Perry Johnson, Kevin Rinke or Dixon get into the race? We'll start with the first name first. Johnson can buy name ID. Whether he got in last February or gets in this February doesn't make much difference. If he were to get in, Johnson is probably too strange to get a plurality of support come August. He could peel off some of James' inch-deep, mile-wide support among passive Southeast Michigan Republican voters, though.

What Rinke was hoping to find with his “Rinke For Governor Part II” flirtations last year isn't clear, but the huge groundswell of support he needs is still hidden. Rinke has a sliver of Johnson's money and could probably gin up about half the support Johnson could buy.

Polling has shown Dixon, the 2022 nominee, would make an immediate impact if she changed her mind and hopped into the race, but she'd need financing to keep things moving. Remember, Dick, Betsy, Doug and Maria DeVos haven't endorsed, yet. Only Dan and Pamella have pledged money to the James Super PAC.

3. How will labor endorse in the open U.S. Senate primary? It's hard to imagine the UAW, Michigan Education Association (MEA) and other majority labor unions won't get involved in the most competitive Democratic U.S. Senate primary in more than 30 years. How will everything break? It's possible they all fall in line behind a common candidate.

But as long as Abdul El-Sayed, U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) all have a realistic shot at this nomination, it's more likely they pick their own horse, kinda like what happened in the 2002 gubernatorial primary.

4. Can Macomb County Clerk Tony Forlini win at the state convention? Arguably, the Republicans' best chance to win a statewide seat in November is Secretary of State, where the GOP have an experienced and likable candidate with the sitting Macomb County clerk, while the Democrats' field is shifting sands.

From John Smietanka to Kristina Karamo, Republican delegates have proudly thrown General Election-ready candidates overboard for broke, unknown strident conservatives who struggle to get 45 percent in November. We'll see if they do it again.

5. Who does Mike Duggan pick as his lieutenant governor running mate? We could ask the same thing about Jocelyn Benson or possibly John James. Honestly, though, does it really matter? No offense, but did Garlin Gilchrist II or Shane Hernandez make any difference to the 2022 results?

From a political intrigue perspective, the Duggan pick is more captivating because it shows where he feels like he needs more help. West Michigan? Northern Michigan? Legislator? Republican? Democrat? Non-partisan? Person from private industry? Unless the campaign is taking on water, it's doubtful we'll know soon.

6. Does Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II preside over the Senate if the Republicans win the 35th state Senate District? Of course, who wins the seat in the first place will be captivating pre-election must-see-TV. The problem for Gilchrist is if a Republican wins and the partisan balance becomes 19-19. The LG showed up to Senate chambers last year fewer times than Rep. Karen Whitsett (D-Detroit) appeared in the House.

Will Gov. Gretchen Whitmer or Senate Democrats need his votes enough in crafting a budget to bring him back to Lansing? Do Republicans force him to break the tie for all sorts of budget amendments? Maybe they'll figure they need to negotiate with House Speaker Matt Hall (R-Richland Township) anyway so the Senate D's will settle with negotiating with Senate Republican Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Lawton) first?

7. Will the knives come out for Matt Hall if Republicans lose control of the state House? All this back-channel talk about rank-and-file House Republicans not liking the heavy-handed Speaker could be seriously overblown. We'll find out for sure if the Hall-led Republicans blow their 58-52 advantage in November and the caucus is picking a minority leader . . . which is A LOT different than picking a Speaker.

8. Does Tom Leonard drop his longshot gubernatorial bid to run for state Supreme Court? Republicans don't have an announced Supreme Court candidate with less than three months from their endorsement convention. Unless Leonard wins Mega Millions, it's hard to see him getting his name out there against three much better-financed GOP candidates. Sitting Justices Megan Cavanagh and Noah Hood will presumably be on the ballot in November.

9. What is Attorney General Dana Nessel doing in 2027? The political talking class may be more interested in this answer than Nessel herself. She was a private attorney before she was AG. It's not hard imagining her going back and doing it again (and charging a lot more money!) Then again, what if she filed for Congress against U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit)? Or filed for Governor against Jocelyn Benson? Or . . . OK, we'll stop now.