(Source: MIRS.news, Published 09/23/2022) After the Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission did its work, the popular analysis in town was the Democrats made significant gains in the Senate map, but the Republicans made out well enough in the state House map to keep majority.
MIRS' first ground-level look at where things stand at this point in time shows a 100% jump ball for the state House.
If the numbers don't tighten for Republican gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon, the odds favor the Democrats to take control of the House for the first time since the 2008 election.
MIRS' initial look has Republican candidates at least a slight favorite in 52 seats, Democrats at least a slight favorite in 51 seats and seven being complete toss-ups.
Of the 52 Republican favorites, five are soft favorites, meaning they could still lose in the district's makeup. Of the Democrats, 11 are soft favorites.
Consider this for a moment: of the 110 House seats, 23 can be legitimately classified as competitive. How did this happen?
The 2022 House elections are unique in that term limits and early departures have opened up 52 seats, nearly half the chamber. Of those, 15 are in districts with base numbers between 55% Democratic and 55% Republican.
Since Michigan had an independent commission mandated by the constitution to not take incumbents into account, we don't know how these districts will play.
However, with recent polling showing Gov. Gretchen Whitmer up by 16 percentage points on Tudor Dixon, Republicans are getting nervous. If Whitmer hits 53%, other statewide Democratic candidates will begin feeling confident. At 55%, Whitmer will have legislative coattails.
If the House goes Democratic, the Senate is likely Democratic. If the House goes Democratic, Whitmer has won convincingly and it will be the first time since 1982 -- 40 years -- since the Democrats have swept everything.
That's a massive change from the prognosis only six months ago, prior to the Dobbs decision, when a Red Wave was in Michigan's long-term forecast.
It's not just the polling that has Republicans nervous. Outside of Washington D.C. money coming in for congressional candidates Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte) (MI-7) and Paul Junge (MI-8), Republicans have very little paid advertising going on right now.
The national Republican money is going to North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin and Florida. Very little is coming to Michigan. Whitmer and the Democratic Governors Association (DGA) are not stopping with their air game. Right to Life and its allies are spending 100% of their attention on defeating Proposal 3 because "that’s the ball game" for them.
If the pro-life movement loses Proposal 3, it's catastrophic for their movement in Michigan and they know it.
Outside of the money, does the Michigan Republican Party have the organization to win competitive seats against Democrats after some contentious internal disputes? That's a rhetorical question, at the moment.
To say a Blue Wave is coming, though, may be overstating things. Macomb County, rural Genesee County and Northern Michigan still look favorable for the Republicans. Conservative congressional candidate John James is separating himself as a favorite in MI-10, for instance.
Parts of West Michigan are likely a few years away from going blue, at the least.
But a cluster of House seats in Kent County and Downriver look better for Democrats than Republicans, which make declaring a clear favorite for the House difficult. Here's what we're seeing in these competitive seats.
Soft Republican Favorites
- 58th House District -- Rep. Nate Shannon (D-Sterling Heights) has moved into being the most vulnerable House incumbent position after reports that Republican Michelle Smith is running circles around the two-term Democrat in GOP-trending Sterling Heights. Smith, the 9th Congressional District Chair is one of those special Republicans who seems to bridge the philosophical Trump divides in the party.
- 46th House District – Maurice Imhoff is working his tail off, but the Democrat is looking a lot like the Chokwe Pitchford of 2022 -- a quality candidate running in a rural Jackson County district that may not be ready for him. Meanwhile, GOP opponent Kathy Schmaltz has a 2:1 money advantage and a similar margin in the experience department.
- 57th House District -- Here's another case where Democrats have a fine candidate who may be running in the wrong district. Aisha Farooqi is a quality candidate who is facing a County Commissioner (Thomas Kuhn) with strong name ID in a notable chunk of Oakland County.
- 109th House District -- Marquette City Commissioner Jenn Hill is an aggressive candidate who may be just too progressive for the Upper Peninsula. She's going to need blue-collar union workers who traditionally carried Democratic candidates over the top in a Marquette County seat to win. Talking about "green mining" isn't going to get it done.
- 68th House District -- The hardest of the softest Republican candidates, Rep. David MARTIN (R-Davison) should be fine in this trending GOP district if he keeps doing what he's doing. The 50/50 base numbers keep this in the "soft" category.
Soft Democratic Favorites
- 29th House District -- This is probably a toss-up district, but we give Rep. Alex Garza (D-Taylor) the slight edge for running a more sophisticated, focused campaign. Garza learned some lessons from his Taylor mayor's race that's helping him in his toughest legislative race to date. If Jim DeSana’s dad represented more of this district during his legislative tenure, this probably would be in a different category.
- 28th House District – Jamie Thompson's anti-mask, vaccine-choice, Trump-won message earned her 57% of the Republican primary vote. If it connected with 57% of independents, this race would be put in a different category, but we have a feeling that won't be the case.
- 84th House District - Republicans are going to be cursing the name Robert Regan for the next six years. His buffoonery gave moderate problem-solver Rep. Carol Glanville (D-Walker) a special election win that should have never happened. Mike Milkaowski is going to need to crush it in Walker and win a couple Grand Rapids precincts to have a shot, and that's a tall order.
- 31st House District - Republican Dan Biniecki is "everybody's dad," a swell guy who is in a crummy district for Republicans. Van Buren Township is the population hub in this Wayne/Monroe County district and Trustee Reggie Miller is wrapping that part of the state up nicely.
- 48th House District - Field reports have Jennifer Conlin smoking Republican Jason Woolford in every facet of the campaign. Fundraising. Organization. Door knocking. Messaging. The Republican caucus leaders aren't even giving much to Woolford's sinking ship, which says more than anything we're writing.
- 80th House District - This one isn't over, but Republican Jeffrey Johnson will need to re-win a district Trump lost by winning Dem-trending Kentwood from a known-entity in Kent County Commissioner Phil Skaggs. Popular restauranteur Rep. Tommy Brann (R-Wyoming) is helping out Johnson, who will need all the breaks he can get in this 55% Dem seat.
- 27th House District - Republicans were hoping Kevin Counts would win the primary here. Instead, it's Bob Howey going up against possibly the House Democrats' most prolific door-knocker. We're trying not to read too much into the fact Jaime Churches nearly received more primary votes in her uncontested primary race than all five GOP candidates combined. It's hard.
- 44th House District -- Has the world changed that much in Calhoun County that voters will pick Dave Morgan on this third try against Rep. Jim Haadsma (D-Battle Creek) ?
- 22nd House District - Possibly the second-hardest soft seat, Rep. Matt Koleszar (D-Plymouth Township) either won this 52/48 suburban Plymouth/Northville-based seat when Rob Donovic got kicked off the ballot or when Dobbs came out. We can debate the matter later.
- 71st House District -- The hardest of the softest Democratic candidates, Rep. Angela Witwer (D-Delta Township)'s opponent, Jeremy Whittum, reported raising an embarrassingly low $20 on his post-primary report. Witwer raised $22,000, giving her $231,000 raised this cycle compared to Whittum's $2,200.
Toss-Ups
- 54th House District - The Orion Township portion likes Republican Donnie Steele. The Bloomfield Hills portions should like Shadia Martini. Who can pull more of their voters to the polls? How does the top of the ticket do? There's too many outside variables in this one to pick a favorite.
- 38th House District - Flip a coin. Seriously. The Whiteford couple knows what needs to be done to score votes in Allegan and Van Buren counties, but Berrien is a different beast. Traditional union groups are helping Joey Andrews in lakeshore areas populated by former Chicagoans. They've both raised over $100,000. They both have strong ground games. Who knows?
- 61st House District - Everybody is putting money here, which makes this Mt. Clemens-based district a hard one to read. Republican Mike Aiello is an unorthodox candidate (has he filed a campaign finance report, yet?), but we're not sure if that's good or bad. If Democrat Denise Mentzer was running a more noteworthy campaign, the answer would be much clearer.
- 83rd House District - Republican Lisa DeKryger would have a slight edge over Wyoming Councilmember John Fitzgerald in a normal year in Kent County, but with MI-3 candidate Hillary Scholten blowing out John Gibbs on the airwaves, it's hard not to think Dem candidates like Fitzgerald won't get a push from that, even if he supported the doomed Wyoming income tax proposal.
- 103rd House District - Chances are Rep. Jack O’Malley (R-Lake Ann) has never worked harder in his legislative career. The loss of the Right to Life endorsement probably helps him, but whether it's enough to fend off big-dollar-raising Betsy Coffia is something we can't call at this point.
- 84th House District - If Republican leadership could pick one competitive Kent County seat they want to win, it's this one. They like former colleague Lynn Afendoulis a lot and they'll do what they think it will take to get her a win. If Rep. Rachel Hood (D-Grand Rapids) runs up the score in Northeast Grand Rapids and can carry Grand Rapids Township, she'll likely win another term.
- 55th House District - Pragmatic Rep. Mark Tisdel (R-Rochester Hills) is in a tough political environment in Rochester, where book banning and overthrowing the school board is a hot issue. If the pushback to the anti-DEI, "parental control of curriculum" movement is greater than the book-banning crowd, Tisdel could find himself crossways with numerous Dem-leaning PTA moms in this bedroom community. Meanwhile, the Democrats are heavily involved in helping Patricia Bernard.
We didn't include on this list …
- 96th House District - Yeah, we had Rep. Timothy Beson (R-Kawkawlin) on a prior list. Now that we let Kim Coonan’s $20,000 cash on hand number sit, we reconsidered.
- 86th House District - At some point, Holland may elect a Democrat to the state Legislature, but not in 2022 against Nancy DeBoer.
- 21st House District - If Dixon wasn't getting blown out, maybe Novi could flip. Maybe.
- 40th House District - If Dixon wasn't getting blown out, maybe Portage could flip. Still, probably not.
- 49th House District - Rep. Ann Bollin (R-Brighton Township) is working like she's in a 50/50 district.
- 62nd House District - All reports are that Alicia St. Germaine is a hell of a candidate.
- 92nd House District - This is Isabella County. We won't get fooled again.
