(Source: MIRS.news, Published 07/17/2024) Republican Tom Barrett is leading Democrat Curtis Hertel Jr. in the hotly contested MI-7 congressional district, 48 to 41 percent with 11 percent undecided, according to a July 8-11 survey of 532 constituents by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, a non-partisan analysis firm. 

The survey also shows Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump leading Democrat Joe Biden in the mid-Michigan-based 7th District 44 to 40 percent with 8 percent supporting Robert F. Kennedy, 1 percent backing Green Party nominee Jill Stein and 7 percent undecided. In a head-to-head, Trump is up 8 points, 50 to 42 percent. 

MI-7 is one of 10 seats nationwide that Inside Elections has rated as a toss-up. Its polling has current U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly), the Democrats' likely U.S. Senate nominee, within the margin of error, against Republican frontrunner Mike Rogers in the congressional district. It's Rogers 48 percent to Slotkin 47 percent. Slotkin is leading Republican Sandy Pensler 49 to 43 percent if he's able to win the nomination. 

In 2020, Biden would have carried what is today the 7th congressional district by 0.5 points, 49.4 to 48.9 percent, making it one of the most evenly divided districts in the nation in that election. In 2016, Trump would have carried it by 3 points. U.S. Sen. Gary Peters (D-Oakland County) won this district by a slim .4 percentage points in 2020. 

“Warning signs for Dems in Michigan bellwether,” wrote Inside Elections author Jacob Rubashkin on X. 

Barrett immediately fundraised off the news, writing in an email to potential supporters, “Hertel’s flaccid numbers show he’s in big trouble in November.” 

A Democratic operative told MIRS that the numbers are not alarming in that Barrett has a name ID advantage from having run in 2022, but once voters are introduced to Hertel and Barrett's extreme position on abortion, this advantage will fade. Hertel has a 2:1 cash on hand advantage as of June 30, $3 million to $1.5 million. 

The polling comes amid concerns among Democrats that President Joe Biden is in an unrecoverable polling deficit against Trump and that Democrats in politically competitive districts will suffer as a result. Barrett lost to Slotkin for this seat in 2022 by 5 percentage points. 

Slotkin made a comment last week that appeared to reference Biden “passing the torch.” Hertel was asked about his stance on Biden continuing his campaign during his press conference on independents and Republicans supporting Hertel’s candidacy. 

MIRS: “At this point, do you believe that Joe Biden should step aside and let a new generation of Democratic leaders…”  

Hertel: “... I know, I know that everyone wants us to play pundit. At this point in time, I’m focused on talking to voters, (at) every fair, festival, farmers market (and) parade, (to) Democrats, Republicans and Independents about this campaign and about a people-led coalition that can actually get things done. And every time I'm not talking about that, I think I'm doing them a disservice. I have no say in any of those things, and I'm gonna keep focusing on the things that actually improve people's lives in America.”  

Reporter: “President Biden campaigned for your predecessor. Would you welcome him to do the same for you?”  

Hertel: “If any president came to this district and wanted to have a conversation, we would be more than happy to have it, look forward to seeing (them) and taking them to the Tasty Twist down the street.”