(Source: MIRS.news, Published 07/22/2024) Two Michigan pollsters have vastly different takes on Vice President Kamala Harris' odds in the 2024 election as the presumed Democratic nominee. 

For Steve Mitchell, the chief executive officer of Mitchell Research and Communications, Harris is the weakest Democrat in modern history to become the presidential nominee based on polling. Her approval rating numbers are as underwater as Biden's were before he dropped out, and she didn't run a particularly strong presidential campaign in 2020 before dropping out. 

She's also been left carrying Biden's baggage. 

"The problems at the border, the problems of inflation … all the issues that you've heard Donald Trump talk about, well, all they have to do now is to say it's the Biden-Harris administration, and they will begin to tie her directly to the problem at the border: how she was in charge of the border, but she never went to the border," he said.  

Bernie Porn of EPIC-MRA was struck by the $81 million Harris, the Democratic National Committee and joint fundraising committees were able to raise within 24 hours of President Joe Biden endorsing Harris. The fundraising period consisted of more than 888,000 grassroots contributors, with 60 percent of them making their first-ever donation during the 2024 election cycle, according to Harris' camp.  

"I think that given the dissatisfaction and malaise of voters about the Biden campaign, to just have that end and now have Kamala Harris as an alternative, I think that introduces excitement into the prospect of a Democratic candidacy automatically," Porn said. "When you look at everybody that has already endorsed her for the nomination, my guess is that there's not going to be competition, and if there is, it will be minimal and she'll get the nomination."  

Harris must secure a presidential nomination from the majority of the Democratic National Convention's delegates. In order to be voted on by delegates, candidates must secure at least 300 signatures, with no more than 50 coming from an individual state.  

However, within 24 hours of Biden dropping out, nearly every elected Democrat and Democratic-aligned political action committees (PAC) had endorsed Harris, including Govs. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Gavin Newsom, three Democrats rumored as potential presidential candidates. 

The Democratic convention next month in Chicago appears to be a done deal with Harris as the nominee. 

But if Whitmer, Shapiro, Newsom, or if Democratic Kentucky Gov. Andrew Beshear (another public Harris endorser) were to replace Biden, Mitchell said they would be a brand-new candidate with new ideas, and without owning the Biden White House's deficiencies.  

As for polls that gave Harris more of an edge against Trump, when compared to a Trump and Biden match-up, Mitchell said he believes as more voters began to understand the real cognitive issues of Biden, they responded with the intention of wanting to see Biden out and someone else in.  

"So you began to see in some polls, Kamala Harris doing better than Joe Biden, and so it wasn't some magical change that all of a sudden, the voters began to say 'yes, Kamala Harris is a better candidate' or 'we like her more than Joe Biden,'" he said. "What the voters were saying is, 'we don't want Biden, and therefore we're going to say we like Kamala Harris better.'"  

Looking at polls from June 28-21, RealClearPolling (RCP) found that nationally, in a five-way general election arena with third-party candidates, Trump defeats Harris 48.2 percent to 46.2 percent on average.  

From June 28 through July 18, RCP recorded that Trump would defeat Biden in battleground states 47.7 percent to 44.7 percent on average, with states including Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.  

Some other notes MIRS picked up from the Michigan-based pollsters include:  

In The '20 Democratic Primaries, Harris Couldn't 'Distinguish Herself From The Field'  

From July 27-29, 2019, as Democrats were campaigning to be the nominee to challenge Trump, Harris' last presidential bid was backed by 11 percent of 520 Democratic voters in an Emerson College poll. She followed Massachusetts U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who was at 14 percent, progressive Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, who was at 20 percent, and Biden, who led the field at 33 percent.  

The polling came about a month in the aftermath of Harris challenging Biden on the debate stage over federal busing policies and segregation in schools, which was a moment that made headlines.  

She said "that little girl was me," describing her experience being bused as part of the second class of integrated public schools in her home county in California. Early in his congressional career, Biden had pushed for reform limiting federal judges' ability to compel school districts to integrate through busing.  

Following her at 6 percent in the July polls was now-U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana. 

Before December 2019, when Harris dropped out of the primaries two months before voting began, a Nov. 17-20 poll by Emerson College found Biden and Sanders both at 27 percent, Warren at 20 percent, Buttigieg at 7 percent, New York businessman Andrew Yang at 4 percent and Harris at 3 percent.  

"You (had) some names that have been running for a long time. Bernie Sanders, of course, was not a newcomer in 2020, and she was unable to distinguish herself from the field, and she was unable to really crack the stronger candidates, and that's why she ultimately had to withdraw," Mitchell said. "No doubt in my mind she's going to be the Democratic candidate for president in 2024, but she was not a particularly good candidate in the presidential field (for 2020)."  

Should Harris Step Away From Electric Vehicles?  

EPIC-MRA conducted a poll for The Detroit Free Press from July 13-17, using a +/- 4 percent margin of error and a 600-person Michigan sample. It found that 55 percent of respondents disapproved of the Biden administration's efforts to have automakers create and sell more electric vehicles (EV).  

Porn projects Harris could find some success, especially among union voters concerned about electrification-related job losses, if she calls for the White House to slow down its EV positions. If Harris were to pump the brakes on the EV talk by stressing that the vehicles need to be more affordable and with batteries that last longer, she could be where the general public tends to be. 

"If that were something that she were to say, you know, 'we're not just there yet … ' Because Trump is going to be 'drill baby, drill' in terms of his position."  

Porn also predicts that Trump himself won't seem as against EVs now that Elon MUSK – the co-founder of the Tesla Inc. automaker – says he plans to commit approximately $45 million monthly to a new super PAC supporting Trump, as The Wall Street Journal reports.  

Time For Some RFK Jr. Negative Ads?  

Before Biden dropped out of the race, EPIC-MRA found that 33 percent of self-described independents backed Trump, 27 percent were for Biden and 14 percent were for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the 70-year-old environmental lawyer and controversial vaccine skeptic.   

National media outlets are now honing in on reports of Kennedy seeking a medical-related cabinet post from Trump in exchange for an endorsement.  

"He still does have pockets of support that Kamala Harris and the Harris campaign and the Democratic Party need to be aware of, and focus on," Porn said. "Maybe even point out in some advertising, probably on social media, about some of the weird stuff that RFK Jr. has done, including his anti-Vax position, which a lot of people may not be aware of, because generally, people support vaccinations, especially for measles and all the things that they've been getting vaccinated for over the years."  

Porn suggested the Harris camp could even zoom in on a 2010 photo of Kennedy that some have argued appears to be of him and an unknown woman eating a barbecued dog carcass.