(Source: MIRS.news, Published 03/28/2024) House Democrats could have picked up an additional 11 seats if their candidates performed equally well as the top of the ticket, according to a 2022 general election analysis done by Target Insyght Executive Director Ed Sarpolus.
Sarpolus compared all 110 state House district party base numbers with how well their major-party gubernatorial, SOS and state House candidates performed in each district in the 2022 general election.
The numbers show that if every Democratic state House candidate did as well as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, House Democrats would be sitting at a 67-seat majority. If every Democratic state House candidate did as well as Secretary of State Jocelyn BENSON, the Democrats would be sitting at a 71-seat majority.
Rep. Jamie Thompson (R-Brownstown), for example, won the 28th District with 50.99 percent over Democrat Robert KULL (49.01 percent). Whitmer received 53.08 percent of the vote in this Downriver district.
Rep. James DeSana (R-Carleton) won the 29th District with 51.48 percent of the vote, beating Democrat and then-incumbent Alex Garza (48.52 percent). Whitmer earned 51.92 percent.
In the 42nd, House Republican Leader Matt Hall (R-Kalamazoo) beat Democrat Justin Mendoza, 54.99 percent to 45.01 percent. But Whitmer received 50.21 percent in Hall’s district.
In the 46th, Rep. Kathy Schmaltz (R-Jackson) beat Democrat Maurice IMHOFF, 54.37 percent to 45.63 percent, while Whitmer received 54.20 percent.
And in the 54th, where Rep. Donni Steele (R-Lake Orion) beat Democrat Shadia Martini, 51.17 percent to 48.83 percent, Whitmer got 54.50 percent of the vote.
Other districts that follow the same trend include Rep. Mark Tisdel (R-Rochester Hills)’s District 55, Rep. Tom Kuhn (R-Troy)’s District 57, Rep. Alicia St. Germaine (R-Harrison Township)’s District 62, Rep. David Martin (R-Davison)’s District 68, Rep. Nancy DeBoer (R-Holland)’s District 86 and Rep. Timothy Beson (R-Bay City)’s District 96.
Districts 49 and 92 are also close, though Whitmer didn’t quite cross the 50 percent threshold in either.
If SOS Benson's performance was factored into other districts, where even Whitmer didn’t outperform House Republican candidates, House Democrats could have won an additional four seats, including Rep. Mike Harris (R-Clarkston)’ District 52. He won with 58.56 percent of the vote over Democrat Robin McGregor, who earned 41.44 percent. But Benson received 50.29 percent in the same district.
The same goes for Rep. Joseph A. Aragona (R-Clinton Township)’s 60th District, where he beat Democrat Linda Rose CLOR with 58.42 percent of the vote. But Benson received 51.34 percent.
Other districts where this applies include Rep. Mike Mueller (R-Linden)’s 72nd District and Rep. Greg VanWoerkom (R-Norton Shores)’s 88th District.
Additionally, in 51 of 56 House districts where Democrats won, Whitmer also outperformed the state House candidate in the same district.
The only Democratic-prevailing districts where that did not apply were in District 7, where Rep. Helena Scott (D-Detroit) ran unopposed and captured 100 percent of the vote, House Majority Floor Leader Abraham Aiyash (D-Hamtramck)’s District 9 (91.6 percent to 91.06 percent), Rep. Cynthia Neeley (D-Flint)’s District 70 (82.03 percent to 80.84 percent), Rep. Angela Witwer (D-Lansing)’s District 76 (55.75 percent to 55.1 percent) and Rep. Amos O’Neal (D-Saginaw)’s District 94 (68.44 percent to 68.22 percent).
At the same time, state House candidates on the Republican side outperformed both gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon and SOS candidate Kristina Karamo in every single district besides District 7, where there was no Republican House candidate.
In 73 of 110 districts, House Republicans also outperformed the projected Republican base.
A similar dynamic to what is seen in the state House can also be applied in the Senate, with three districts where if the Democratic candidate performed as well as Whitmer, the seat would have flipped.
Republican Sen. Michael Webber (R-Rochester Hills) narrowly won over Democrat incumbent Padma Kuppa in 2022 with 50.35 percent of the vote, while Whitmer received 54.95 percent in the district.
Similar trends can be seen in Sen. Mark Huizenga (R-Walker)'s District 30 and Sen. Jon Bumstead (R-North Muskegon)’s District 32, where Whitmer received 5 percent and 3 percent more than the Democratic Senate candidates in those seats, respectively.
In Sen. Jim Runestad (R-White Lake)’s 23rd District, Benson received 50.75 percent. If a Democratic candidate had done as well, Democrats would have a 23-seat majority.
