(Source: MIRS.news, Published Oct. 14, 2022) Whatever happens, it's going to be close.
With 22 days until the General Election, nearly all of the caucus spending on state Senate races is focused on five races, but if you presume Rep. Darrin Camilleri (D-Brownstown Twp.) will win in the Downriver-based 4th District, control of the state Senate is really down to four races.
Information collected by AdImpact shows the Democratic caucus has quit spending in the Troy-based 9th District and the Muskegon-based 32nd District. The Republicans don't appear to be making a concerted effort against Sen. Rosemary Bayer (D-Beverly Hills) in the 13th, Sue SHINK in the 14th or Sam SINGH in the 28th.
Barring anything unexpected happening in any of the aforementioned seats, the Republicans and Democrats come into the final four districts tied, 17-17.
The outside spending on both sides is being put into two Macomb seats -- the 11th and 12th, Grand Rapids (30th) and the Tri-Cities (35th).
The base numbers are better for the Republicans in the 12th and better for the Democrats in the 11th. Grand Rapids is historically a Republican area trending blue, and the Tri-Cities are traditionally a Democratic area trending red.
As of Oct. 14, here's where we are:
If Gov. Gretchen Whitmer wins with 52% of the vote or less, Republicans are the favorites to keep the majority. If Whitmer wins with 53% of the vote, a 19-19 split is the most likely scenario. If Whitmer wins with 54% or more, it's more likely than not Democrats will hold the gavel for the first time since 1983. If Tudor Dixon pulls off the upset, the Republicans could win the 4th or even the 14th. Likewise, if Whitmer wins with 55% or more, keep an eye on Rochester and Muskegon for upsets.
Like, we said, it's that close.
Here's a recap on the Top 10 competitive Senate seats.
1. 30th Senate District - Hard-charging Rep. David LaGrand (D-Grand Rapids) has turned this into one hell of a race. Republicans got a late start here and even now aren't spending as much as one would think. The D's are still up more than 2:1 on broadcast, with congressional nominee Hillary SCHOLTEN blowing out Republican John GIBBS on the airwaves. It's hard to imagine a Republican with the Dutch surname "Huizenga" losing in West Michigan, but Biden won it two years ago. Then again, so did John James.
Kent County historically reports earlier than most other areas. If Dems win this one, they're likely looking at 19 at a minimum.
2. 12th Senate District - Republicans and Democrats are going toe-to-toe in this one, the most expensive Senate district up to now with $5.2 million spent on broadcast TV alone. The Democrats are rowing into a stiff headwind by going as big in Macomb County as they are. This working-class county is moving hard toward Trump and Republicans. If it were any other candidate than Rep. Kevin Hertel (D-St. Clair Shores), the Democrats may be playing in other districts.
3. 35th Senate District - Another strong Democratic candidate in an area trending the Republicans' way due to Trump, Kristen McDonald Rivet, is benefiting from a 2:1 spending broadcast advantage that put the R's on the defense. Back-to-back-to-back ads called the Bay City commissioner "radical" and “extreme.” They claim she raised taxes and fees in her city to give herself a raise.
Down the stretch, Democrats need a strong get-out-the-vote effort out of Saginaw, which has proven elusive in past cycles.
4. 11th Senate District - Democrats hauled out the ol' drunk driving accident on Sen. Michael D. MacDonald (R-Sterling Heights) again. That's the one that cost the motorcyclist a leg. The numbers aren't good for the incumbent in this district, but incumbents always get the benefit of the doubt from their caucus. With roughly $5 million in spending on broadcast in this district, this one will be close.
With eight Detroit voting precincts in this district, this may be the district we're all hitting "refresh" on come 5 a.m. Nov. 9.
5. 4th Senate District - Without question, this district is trending the wrong way for Democrats, but whether Houston James can capitalize on it against the much more experienced and polished Camilleri is the question. James is fresh out of college and, frankly, looks it. If the Republican nominee were Pat Somerville, the Democrats would be in far bigger trouble. For now, they're forced to dump a lot of money here because the Republicans are.
6. 32nd Senate District - Rural northern Michigan is giving Sen. Jon Bumstead (R-Newaygo) a big lift, nearly putting this one out of reach for Rep. Terry SABO (D-Muskegon), who has Muskegon and that's about it. The Democrats don’t have a shortage of money, but they stopped advertising aggressively here a few weeks ago.
7. 9th Senate District - The base numbers are good enough for Democrats that something magical could happen here, but Rep. Padma KUPPA (D-Troy) has been sent adrift by Senate Democrats. The internal polling is looking good for former Rep. Mike Webber, a Republican who has successfully avoided attaching himself to the Trump stuff. There's no real money being spent in this race, which tells you what you need to know.
8. 14th Senate District - This Sue Shink-Tim Golding race in Washtenaw and Jackson counties hasn't been on our radar before, and it's only on our list this time because the underdog Republican is spending a little bit of money and the matchup may be a little better for him than the other candidates. Still, Golding doesn't have a shot unless Dixon does and, even then, it will be tough.
9. 13th Senate District - Suburban Detroit is trending so well for the Democrats that Republicans aren't bothering with broadcasts in support of nominee Jason RHINES. This area went so big for Biden, it probably isn't going to matter how new Sen. Rosemary BAYER (D-Beverly Hills) is to this community.
10. 28th Senate District - Had Daylen Howard run in even a 53% or 54% Republican House seat, he could start measuring the drapes for his legislative office. In this East Lansing/Meridian Township district, the numbers are so hard for Howard and Sam SINGH is such a quality, experienced political figure that it's hard to see anything but a Democratic collapse stopping Singh from reaching the Senate.
