(Source: MIRS.news, Published 09/24/2023) If Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. wasn't Robert F. Kennedy running as the Natural Law Party candidate in Michigan, recent history of Natural Law Party nominees shows that he'd likely get less than 3,000 votes.

The fact that he was a third-party candidate who campaigned and generated some support would signal that, based on recent history, Kennedy could pick up more than the few thousand votes typical third party candidates generate.

A review of third-party candidates running for president in Michigan since 1980 shows those with a high-profile name, such as Ralph Nader, Gary Johnson, Ross Perot or John Anderson can draw well more than 100,000 votes.

None of the aforementioned candidates appeared on the ballot after dropping out, but the numbers show Michigan voters, historically, will vote in large numbers for a candidate they like, regardless of whether they have a realistic shot of winning.

Consider that in 1912, Michigan gave third-party candidate Theodore Roosevelt its electoral votes. Progressive Robert LaFollette got 10 percent in 1924 and George Wallace got 10 percent in 1968.

Since the presidential election of 1976, third party candidates have only garnered more than five percent of the vote in Michigan four times.

The most successful third-party candidate in the last 50 years, was Perot, who earned 19.3% of the vote as an independent candidate in 1992. Some argue that had he not dropped out for a short period of time, Perot had a shot of winning Michigan.

Credible third-party candidates get votes in Michigan. Johnson got 172,136 as a Libertarian in 2016. Perot earned 336,670 votes in 1996. Anderson won 275,223 votes in 1980. Nader got 84,165 votes in 2000, which was 2 percent of the total vote.

On average, non-major party candidates as a whole pull only 1.6 percent of Michigan’s votes from Democrats or Republicans. This includes Libertarians, Natural Law, Green party and more, as long as they qualify for the ballot dating back to 1976. 

MIRS has created a spreadsheet to show how third-party candidates have performed in presidential elections since 1976. Most years, they hardly broke one percent. In some years, there were multiple write-in candidates that MIRS combined into one column for all write-ins. 

The year with the smallest influence from third party candidates was 1988, when 0.7 percent of voters strayed from Democrats or Republicans. The Libertarian, Ron PAUL, earned 18,336 votes that year. 

Other interesting facts from looking at the data of presidential elections in Michigan since 1976:

 - The Republican presidential nominee has not crested 50% in Michigan since 1988.

 - In the last seven election cycles, the Democratic nominee for president earned at least 50% six times. 

 - Since 2000, there have only been four recognized political parties outside the Democrats and the Republicans that have earned votes for president. The Libertarians have been the most successful, earning an average of 56,699 votes per cycle since 2000, which is significant since their 2012 candidate missed the ballot. 

 - The Green Party is the second-most successful third party since 2000, averaging 26,826 votes. The U.S. Taxpayers Party averages 10,492 votes. The Natural Law Party averages 6,812. 

 - The average margin for Democrats over Republicans since 2000 is 299,909 votes. Only Perot has earned more votes than the average margin in the last 50 years.