(Source: MIRS.news, Published 11/05/2024) U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly) narrowly defeated former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers in Michigan's U.S. Senate race, lining herself up to be Michigan's second-ever female U.S. senator and preventing Republicans from grabbing a seat they haven't touched in more than 20 years.  

The race was razor-thin throughout the night, but Slotkin was able to slightly over-perform Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, narrowly winning Muskegon and Saginaw counties, two counties Harris was not able to win. While Rogers was up on Slotkin much of the day, the late votes coming out of Kalamazoo County pushed her over the edge and the final precincts from Wayne County will put her ahead for good. 

In terms of the campaign, Slotkin led the race from start to finish, essentially clearing the Democratic field of big-named candidates in 2023 and then positioning herself in 2024 as the type of moderate, problem-solving public servant that worked for the several successful Democratic U.S. Senate candidates before her. 

Rogers, a member of Congress from 2001-14, moved back to Michigan from Florida to run. In doing so, he overcame an early fundraising disadvantage and struggling Michigan Republican Party infrastructure to pull off a come-from-behind victory. 

Throughout the race, Slotkin had maintained a roughly five-point lead on Rogers, but he closed the gap in the campaign's closing weeks as he and Trump's numbers started mirroring each other's. In the 82 public polls featuring Rogers and Slotkin recorded by Real Clear Politics, Slotkin had the edge in 68 of them. Eight were tied and Rogers was up in three. 

Unlike Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, Slotkin won Muskegon County, albeit by 432 votes, and Saginaw County, albeit by 65 votes. 

The race marked the first U.S. Senate contest in Michigan in which both sides spent around $100 million a piece in candidate hard money to independent political action committee support. It pitted two candidates with national security experience and produced one of the best televised debates in recent Michigan history.  

In the beginning of last year, U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing) announced she was retiring at the end of her term. She has served in the chamber since 2001, and will leave both as Michigan's first female U.S. senator and the state's second-longest tenured senator in Congress behind former U.S. Sen. Carl Levin, who served for 36 years.  

Slotkin and Rogers came from similar career paths.  

Slotkin served in the CIA during 2006 and 2007, evaluating Iranian activity in Iraq. During both Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama's administrations, Slotkin was a director for Iraq on the White House's National Security Council.  

In politics, Slotkin promoted herself as a centrist Democrat. She first came to Congress after the 2018 elections, where criticism towards former President Donald Trump's administration summoned a "pink wave" of successful female candidates. She defeated incumbent U.S. Rep. Mike Bishop 50.6 percent to 46.8 percent in a district containing the Rochester area in Oakland County, Livingston County communities and the Lansing area.  

Rogers, a Brighton Republican, was a Chicago-based special agent for the FBI in the early '90s, and was chair of the U.S. House's permanent select intelligence committee from 2011 through 2015.  

Some questioned how Rogers would survive a Republican primary when he left his post-government life in Florida last year to run for the seat, particularly given critical comments he made regarding Trump as a CNN national security commentator. 

Following the Jan. 6, 2021 riots in the U.S. Capitol, Rogers compared Trump's reaction to his 2020 election loss to that “seen in Third World dictatorships.” 

But this year he aligned himself with Trump, excusing the four different sets of criminal charges against him and saying efforts to keep Trump off state ballots were akin to election interference. 

From there, Rogers coasted in winning a four-person primary by 418,201 votes.  

Slotkin coasted through her primary as well, getting only semi-serious competition from actor Hill Harper, who was underfunded, under-staffed and under-experienced in politics to put forward a serious challenge. She won 76% to 24%. 

In this race, Slotkin tried promoting herself as a strong national security candidate, and that the electric vehicle (EV) issue was more about putting American production ahead of China's. Rogers argued that Democrats' push for EVs was overbearing and "killing the car business," but Slotkin claimed she was a Holly farm resident not looking to buy an EV.  

Rogers also made the controversial Gotion Inc. development in the Big Rapids area part of his campaign. The battery parts manufacturer has a Chinese parent company and was incentivized with multi-million dollar tax exemptions and grants from the state.  

He made doing "anything in our power to stop Gotion" one of his campaign promises, and attempted to link Slotkin to an era of Democrats signing nondisclosure agreements, entering into state-funded business deals with unvetted companies abroad.  

But Slotkin said to MIRS in September that she has legislation mandating that Chinese companies go through "full national security vetting" before purchasing American farmland or manufacturing sites.  

Additionally, Rogers made fentanyl and immigration part of his campaign, while the Michigan Democratic Party (MDP) condemned Rogers for introducing 2003 legislation to make chronic pain-treatment drugs more accessible.  

Similar to the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump at the top of the ticket, Democrats tried to paint Rogers as the more extreme candidate on the abortion issue. However, Rogers and his wife Kristi were featured in ads claiming that because Michiganders approved Proposal 3 in 2022, which made abortion access a right in the state constitution, he will “not do anything to change it” in the U.S. Senate.  

During the 2020 election cycle, when present-day U.S. Rep. John James (R-Shelby Township) challenged incumbent U.S. Sen. Gary Peters (D-Oakland County), Democratic ad spending was above $81.8 million total and Republicans spent more than $71.3 million.  

In 2018, when James challenged Stabenow, Democrats' total media spending did not reach $9.5 million to defend Stabenow's seat, and overall Republican spending was at $11.3 million.