(Source: MIRS.news, Published 10/18/2022) If the Senate maps drawn last year had been in place in 2018, the year Gov. Gretchen Whitmer won her first term by 9.56 percentage points, the Republicans still would have won 20 seats, presuming that every voter continued to vote for a Republican or Democratic candidate.
Voting precinct-by-precinct analysis by Target Insyght at the request of MIRS news has the Senate Democrats winning Districts 1-11, 13-15, 19, 21 and 27-29. In 2014, under these new maps, the Republicans would have captured a 22-16 majority.
"Democrats have many opportunities to regain control of the state Senate, but they cannot solely depend on Gretchen Whitmer, even if she wins by more than 9 percentage points or wins with 53% or more of the vote," said Ed Sarpolus of Target Insyght. "Her coattails were not long enough for Senate Democrats to claims victories."
Target Insyght took the past 2018 election results by precinct and used the census geography by precinct and reaggregated the results in the newly drawn districts. The impact of the redistricting commission would have been felt in the 2018 election, with the commission's work to make the districts more competitive, Sarpolus said.
The Senate seats that he found to be the most competitive are those seats Democrats are spending big bucks trying to win -- SD-9, SD-12, SD-13, SD-30, SD-32 and SD-35.
Democrats are spending big in the SD-12 district featuring Rep. Kevin HerteL (D-St. Clair Shores) versus Sen. Pamela Hornberger (R-Chesterfield Twp.) and SD-30 with Rep. David LaGrand (D-Grand Rapids) going up against Sen. Mark Huizenga (R-Walker).
A look at TV ad-buy spending shows Democrats dropping off in the race between Rep. Terry SABO (D-Muskegon) versus Sen. Jon Bumstead (R-Newaygo) in SD-32. Also, there isn't much action in SD-9 with Rep. Padma Kuppa (D-Troy) hoping to catch former Rep. Mike Webber.
