Source: MIRS.news, Published 07/21/2023) U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly) leads former Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers 44% to 38% in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup for the 2024 open U.S. Senate seat based on a July 11-13 Mitchell Research and Communications survey conducted with MIRS News. The cross tabs are here.
The survey of 639 likely voters also found Slotkin, the presumed Democratic frontrunner for the nomination, leading former U.S. Rep. Peter Meijer in a hypothetical head-to-head 41%-28% with 23% undecided.
The head-to-head question was re-asked with generally neutral bios on both candidates, with the arguable exception of this one statement on Slotkin. "Slotkin is described as a moderate but has voted in line with President Biden 100% of the time."
After the informed question, the race moves to Slotkin 42%-Rogers 41% and Slotkin 42%-Meijer 35%. The poll's margin of error is +/-4%.
Steve Mitchell of Mitchell Communications and Research said he sees a potential Slotkin-Rogers race as a "statistical tie" while Meijer "has not solidified" the Republican base.
Slotkin announced her candidacy to run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by retiring U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Lansing) on Feb. 27. The Detroit News reported on July 1 that Rogers is "taking a closer look" at the possibility of running for the Republican nomination. Meijer is talked about as a potential candidate but has not signaled interest either way.
The survey also found Biden at 45% to former President Donald Trump's 43% in a hypothetical rematch in Michigan, which is within the margin of error. Biden is up on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis 44% to 31% in Michigan.
Biden has 75% support in a Democratic primary against author Marianne Williamson (4%) and attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (3%).
In a Republican primary in Michigan, Mitchell has Trump with 69% support, DeSantis at 13%, former Vice President Mike Pence at 3%, U.S. Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) at 2%, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at 1%, "quality guru" Perry Johnson at 0% and the final 11% undecided.
With both Biden and Trump getting close to three-fourths of the vote in their partisan primary and Michigan holding a relatively early primary, Mitchell said "It is very difficult to see a scenario where either loses the primary in Michigan."
The general election could be "very close," but Michigan may not emerge as a 2024 battleground state due to a "very problematic" state Republican Party, which has only raised $93,000 as of earlier this month.
"The party should be raising tens of millions of dollars as the Democrats are doing if the Republicans want to remain viable," Mitchell said.
In related news:
- Biden and Trump are getting at least 89% of their party vote, but Biden is winning 41%-34% with independents.
- Almost 65% are "very enthusiastic" about the 2024 election, 18% are "somewhat enthusiastic," 9% are "not very" and 7% are "not at all." Among Democrats, 71% are "very enthusiastic." Among Republicans, 66% are "very enthusiastic." Among independents, 54% are "very enthusiastic."
The bios read in the informed question were as followed:
“Elissa Slotkin is a United States Congresswoman who has represented both mid-Michigan and Oakland County in Congress. Prior to serving in Congress, she served as a CIA analyst and as a Department of Defense official. Slotkin is described as a moderate but has voted in line with President Biden 100% of the time.
“Peter Meijer is a former United States Congressman representing the Grand Rapids area and West Michigan. For 8 years he served in the United States Army Reserve and was deployed to Iraq for more than a year. He is the son of the CEO of Meijer stores, and he is considered to be more moderate.
“Mike Rogers is a former law enforcement officer, State Legislator, and United States Congressman. He served in Congress from 2001-2015 and was chair of the House Intelligence Committee. He has authored several books on terrorist activities and has been a talk radio host.”
