(Source: MIRS.news, Published 08/02/2024) Before the state’s term limits law went into full effect in 1998, which broomed out legislative incumbents on a regular basis, Democratic and Republican caucuses had to rely on retirements or unseating incumbents to pick up seats.  

And it happened regularly.  

From 1976 to 1996, an average of six incumbents would lose to a challenger every election year, according to research conducted by MIRS over the last two days. The chart can be found here.  

In researching Michigan Manuals, Detroit Free Press clippings and the Michigan Library’s legislative biography web page, MIRS found that, prior to term limits, at least two incumbents lost their seats every election cycle.  

This doesn’t count incumbents who lost in 1992 and 1982 because they were drawn into the same district as a colleague.   

MIRS looked into this number due to the nature of the 2024 election cycle, in which all but one House member could have run for re-election this year under the change to the term limits constitutional amendment.  

In all, eight current House members are not running for their current seats this year, meaning 102 are.  

This number is far fewer than the normal churn of legislative turnover during the 20 years leading up to the Term Limits Era when retirements were common and political ambitions were as they always were.  

In the first two years of the term-limit era (1998 and 2000), no incumbents lost their seats. From 1998 to 2022, there’s been an average of three incumbents who lost, roughly one in the primary and two in the general election.