(Source: MIRS.news, Published 04/08/2022) The answer to the above headline is 2010.
An analysis of the political party base numbers of each state Senate district leading into the coming year's election shows Republicans had a lopsided advantage heading into every election from 2002 to 2018 except one.
In 2010, 11 Senate districts were solidly Democratic, according to an average of 2004, 2006 and 2008 results of Board of Education races. Another 4 were likely Democratic districts, while three leaned Democratic. This gave the Dems an 18-12 edge on Republicans based simply on these base numbers. The other 8 seats were toss-ups.
What happened?
Democrats had their worst year in decades and Republicans expanded their close to 40-year majority in the Senate by winning 26 seats to the Democrats' 12.
These numbers come after the same analysis shows another favorable year for Senate Democrats based on the Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission's (ICRC) base numbers.
For 2022, 10 Senate districts are solidly Democratic, 6 are likely Dem and 3 lean Dem. That's 19 seats; half of the chamber's 38 start with a built-in Dem advantage of more than 53%. A total of 7 are solidly Republican, 7 are likely Republican and 2 lean GOP for a total of 14, with three more on the fence.
But in 2010, 18 seats had a built-in Democratic advantage. They lost in a landslide.
This shows, said Sen. Aric Nesbitt (R-Lawton), that base numbers can play a role in the results, but the nation's political environment, the candidates and the issues play a larger role.
That's why Nesbitt, head of the Senate Republicans' campaign operation, is not publicly sweating about the 2022 election despite the Democrats' perceived built-in advantage.
"You have a president with a 40% approval rating. You have the top issues being inflation (the highest in 40 years), the economy, the supply chain delays, rising interest rates, a failure at the federal level with huge deficits, the open border, Afghanistan," Nesbitt said.
"If you mix that with a governor who knows she is in trouble due to her lockdowns, school closures and economic suppression and you're going to see independent voters who are going to swing back hard for the Republicans."
Ed Sarpolus of Target Insyght concurred in an analysis for MIRS News in which he concluded, “The Independent Redistricting Commission’s attempt to make Congressional, State Senate and State House of Representatives districts competitive and less partisan will not guarantee that Democrats will win most districts at any level.”
MIRS looked at the base numbers leading into the 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018 elections after Senate Minority Leader Jim Ananich (D-Flint)'s told Off The Record a couple weeks ago, "We've got a real good shot" at taking the majority.
"It's ours to lose," he said. "I think we have a real serious path to get to the majority."
To put some meat on those bones, he explained his real optimism because "It's the first time in 40 years we're not gerrymandered either by the courts or the Republicans . . . I think it's going to be our year if the national environment isn't too bad."
Ananich may be right. Based solely on political base numbers, 2022 presents the most even opportunity for either party to take majority in the last 20 years. That's probably not surprising considering Republican legislators drew the last two maps.
The key, Ananich points out, is if Democratic President Joe Biden's numbers can rebound.
Ananich is hoping by summer the voting public will realize what impact the President's program has had on their lives.
"Sometimes it takes longer for Democratic policies to show the public why you should vote for us," he said.
In the past, the Senate Democrats' recruitment efforts were also a steep hill to climb. Ananich said that's not the case anymore.
"This is the first time I didn't have to pull, prod, do anything I could like mowing somebody's grass to get someone to run for the Senate. Now everyone wants to run. They want to be part of the team."
And he said he believes the Republicans "are afraid."
In the past, he explained, "they ran in safe districts, where they had the majority before the election started. Now they have to go out and talk to people and a lot of their values don't align with where the people are at."
Perhaps the most bold observation he made related to the possible impact of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's candidacy.
"The governor is going to lead us with her coattails. We get 19 seats if she just wins, but if we're in the 52%-53% range (her margin of victory) we win for sure because we have better match-ups."
