(Source: MIRS.news, Published 01/15/2025) Republicans are anxiously tapping their fingers, checking their watches and refreshing their emails, waiting for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer to call the special election to fill the 35th Senate seat left by now-U.S. Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City), believing they have a better than even chance of winning it. 

Donald Trump was around the 50% in this Bay City/Saginaw/Midland district, after all. 

With Democrats holding a 19-18 advantage in the state Senate, a Republican win would lock things up at 19-19, giving Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II the tie-breaking vote . . . if all Republicans vote. But that's a different story for a different time. 

For now, when will the Governor call the special election here? The constitution states only that the Governor “shall” call for a special election, but doesn't give any parameters as to when. 

But if the Governor is being consistent, the numbers indicate it should be a few more days.  

Whitmer has called 10 special elections to fill vacant legislative seats in her time in office and, on average, it takes her 17 days to make the announcement. McDonald Rivet resigned from the Senate on Jan. 3, according to a spreadsheet compiled by MIRS. 

Playing the averages, that gives her until Jan. 20.  

However, that average is a little inflated due to how Whitmer called the special election to fill the seat left after Rep. Andrea Schroeder died on Oct. 1, 2021. Figuring that both Rep. Douglas C. Wozniak (R-Shelby Township) and then-Rep. Mark Huizenga (R-Walker) would win special Senate elections later in the year, she waited on calling a special election for the Waterford seat until after Wozniak and Huizenga won, which ended up being 74 days.  

Otherwise, Whitmer has acted fast. She took mere hours to call the special election in the 25th House District when former Rep. Kevin Coleman stepped down to become Westland’s mayor.  

On average, it’s taken 191 days from the date of the vacancy to the date of the special election to fill that vacancy under Whitmer. Her range has been 306 days on the high end (former Sen. Pete MacGregor/Sen. Pete Lucido) to 120 days on the low end (former Rep. Sheldon Neeley).  

The only times she’s called an election that was not during a pre-established election day was when solid Democratic seats were in question (Coleman, Neeley, Lori Stone).  

When Republican seats are in question, she has used the established election dates on the calendar – first Tuesday after the first Monday in May, August and November.  

How does this compare with former Republican Gov. Rick Snyder? Fairly closely.  

Snyder filled 13 legislative vacancies during his eight years in office. It took him less than six days to call a special election after a vacancy, on average. He established no pattern based on whether the seat should go Democrat or Republican.  

For example, he took 16 days to call an election to replace former Rep. Derek Miller, but he called a special the same day when Sen. Virgil Smith resigned.  

From the date of the vacancy to the general election, it took Snyder 211 days, on average, to fill a vacancy with days ranging 336 on the high end to 123 on the low end.  

However, this appears to have been a product of the calendar. Snyder never created a special election date. He always used the pre-set days in May, August, November or early March in the case of a presidential primary (Todd Courser/Cindy Gamrat).