(Source: MIRS.news, Published 07/20/2022) Republican gubernatorial candidate Kevin Rinke has trimmed primary opponent Tudor Dixon's lead to 8 percentage points (28% to 20%) in the latest Mitchell Research & Communications poll conducted July 17-18 and commissioned by MIRS News.
The 501 likely Republican voter survey found Rinke rising in the five-candidate field from 13% to 20% since the July 7-8 survey. Dixon has moved from 26% to 28% in the last 10 days and that should be concerning, said pollster Steve Mitchell.
He said it shows that the negative attacks Rinke is launching on her allegedly being a "Republican in Name Only" (RINO) are working.
"The trajectory of this race has changed because of the persistent attacks by Rinke," Mitchell said. "Unless Dixon begins to attack Rinke back, she could lose this race as it continues to tighten."
The numbers also show that Ryan D. Kelley and Garrett Soldano's inability to afford TV ad buys is causing their campaigns to stagnate, Mitchell said. Kelley remains at 15% in this new July 17-18 poll, while Soldano's numbers have slipped from 13% to 10%.
"This is now a two-way race because Kelley and Soldano do not have the resources to match the ad buys of Dixon and Rinke," Mitchell said.
Dixon's 28% in this poll is more than the 26% who remain undecided. It's the first time a candidate has polled higher than undecided in a Mitchell survey of Michigan's Republican gubernatorial primary.
If President Donald Trump endorses Dixon, Mitchell said his numbers show the race would be over. A total of 36% said they would support Dixon if Trump endorsed her. Rinke's numbers would drop to 13%, Soldano would go to 11% and Kelley would sink to 10%. There would still be 26% undecided.
If Trump supported Kelley, an "America First" candidate, he would move to 23%, still five points behind Dixon's 28%. Soldano would go to 14% while Rinke's numbers would sink to 9%. The percentage of undecided would move to 29%.
Ralph Rebandt, the fifth Republican on the ballot, is consistently at 1% in about every poll question.
Other interesting notes from the crosstabs:
- Dixon of West Michigan is leading with 40% support from the Detroit media market while Rinke, of Southeast Michigan, is leading with 24% in the Grand Rapids TV media market.
- Dixon is leading with 35% of the vote from people who have already voted absentee
- Rinke is leading 29% to 25% over Dixon among those voters who plan to vote by absentee ballot, but haven't done it, yet.
- Dixon is leading 35% to 16% (over Rinke and Kelley) among male voters while Rinke has 23% to Dixon's 21% among women voters.
- Dixon is up 29% to 21% over Kelly among voters between 45 and 64. She is up 33% to 27% over Rinke in voters 18-44.
Asked by MIRS for comment, James Blair, senior strategist for the Tudor Dixon campaign said:
“Yet another poll shows Tudor Dixon rapidly consolidating support for her candidacy on the strength of her positive vision for Michigan's families. Failed consultants and desperate candidates are incapable of stopping that momentum. Voters are smarter than them."
The survey of 500 voters included 50% landlines and 50% text messages to cell phones, who completed the poll online. The margin of error is 4.38%
Mitchell is not working for any campaign and takes great exception to any insinuation to the contrary. Over the weekend, a right-wing online webpage called the "Gateway Pundit" claimed Mitchell was a consultant for the Dixon campaign.
"I am not, nor have I been, a consultant to the Tudor Dixon Campaign. Neither I, nor my company, have received one nickel from the Dixon campaign, from any organizations associated with the Dixon campaign, or from any individuals associated with the Dixon campaign," he said.
"I have not received any money from any people associated with, or organizations associated with, the Dixon campaign for doing work unrelated to this that could disguise a payment to Mitchell Research from the Dixon campaign, individuals associated with the Dixon campaign, or organizations associated with the Dixon campaign, or the Dixon campaign."
He said neither he, his wife nor any of his employees have contributed to any campaign.
The poll comes a day after The Detroit News released polling from the Glengariff Group that showed Dixon at 19%, Rinke at 15%, Soldano at 13% and Kelley at 12%.
Trump is now 9-for-12 on his Republican gubernatorial picks after Trump-backed state legislator Dan Cox defeated Kelly Schulz, who had the support of moderate Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, in the Maryland primary Tuesday night.
