(Source: MIRS.news, Published 09/26/2022) The Republican Party's county conventions across Michigan last month reported record turnout from people the regulars had never seen before.
These "Ultra-MAGA" newcomers, inspired by a "Storm" orchestrated in the name of President Donald TRUMP by Attorney General nominee Matt DePerno, recorded wins throughout the state, from Ottawa to Oakland County.
"Last night was a historic night in Michigan," wrote Michigan Republican Party (MRP) co-chair Meshawn Maddock at the time. "All over the state, thousands of America First New Patriot delegates answered the call to join the party to reclaim our great state and our nation! We have doubled the size of our Army. We are ready to work. They are hungry for change."
These delegates made their voices heard during the convention when they won a rare floor fight against Convention Chair Ron Weiser and replaced the Macomb County delegates.
But were these surprise attendees new Republican voters who are going untraceable through modern polling? Did this surge of new enthusiasm equate to a widening of the GOP tent that means a tighter race than what the public polling is showing?
The short answer is no.
Practical Political Consultants' (PPC) Mark Grebner ran the names of two-thirds of the listed August convention delegates and alternates through his database and found that 97.5% voted in the 2020 general election, more than 90% voted in the 2018 election and 77% voted in the 2014 election.
The later number is important in that it was the Gov. Rick Snyder re-election year, prior to Donald Trump being a driver in Republican Party politics.
Also, 74% voted in the 2016 presidential primary when Trump won Michigan and the nomination. Less than 1% have no record of voting for anything in the past.
Of the 2022 convention delegates and alternates, 23% were not actively involved in the Republican Party or politics until after Trump was nominated president. This relatively small percentage, when extrapolated over the Republican Party base, explains how Trump won in 2016.
These newcomers weren't picked up by modern pollsters since they hadn't voted in recent elections. They were numerous enough to have a fractional impact on the results. Instead of Democrat Hillary Clinton winning by five points in 2016, as many public polls projected in Michigan, Trump won by less than 1%.
"I think these people have been around for a long time," said John YOB of Strategic National on the MIRS Monday podcast on the August 2022 delegates. "They just figured out the delegate process. These people did storm the convention process . . . They are precinct delegates, and they are going to have a massive impact on future conventions."
Grebner's numbers also found:
- 43% of the convention delegates and alternates signed at least one of the Unlock Michigan petitions
- 50% of them have signed at least one Right to Life-related petition.
However, the significance of the fact that 97.5% voted in the 2020 election shows that Republicans have nearly hit the ceiling on these types of new MAGA (Make America Great Again)/Trump voters. There isn't another large bastion of them in 2022 who aren't being counted in the polls.
That's significant because it shows the EPIC-MRA polling last week that the gubernatorial race is a 16-point lead last week probably isn't off by much, if at all.
Yob said his polling at Strategic National still shows a double-digit lead for Whitmer and that a 16-point lead is in the realm of possibility.
Republican gubernatorial nominee Tudor DIXON needs to trim the lead to at least 6 percentage points by Election Day to give Attorney General nominee Matt DePerno a chance, he said. It needs to be a 3-4 percentage point lead to put Secretary of State nominee Kristina Karamo in position. What about the Legislature?
"The top of the ticket needs to be within single digits in order for the House and Senate to hold on," Yob said.
When Gov. Jennifer Granholm defeated Dick DeVos by 14 points in 2006, the House flipped, but the Senate barely hung on for the Republicans. Under these new independently-drawn redistricting maps, the same likely will not be the case.
On the other hand, Yob said the race could end up looking like 2002, in which Dick Posthumus was down more than 10 points with only weeks to go, but was able to rally back and get within four points, giving then-Secretary of State candidate Terri Lynn Land and Attorney General candidate Mike Cox a long enough runway to win.
The Senate and House also stayed Republican in 2002, as well.
