(Source: MIRS.news, Published 11/04/2022) Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is up 50% to 48%, well within the margin of error, and Attorney General Dana Nessel is up 47% to 44% with 8% undecided, according to a Thursday night poll of 658 likely voters conducted by Mitchell Research and Communications for MIRS.
The polling also shows Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson up 51% to 40% on Republican Kristina and Proposal 3 up 51% to 46% with 3% not planning to vote on the proposal.
Pollster Steve said Whitmer is at the important 50% threshold in her race against Tudor , but she's also running with an unpopular Democratic president in the White House.
"With a warm, partly sunny day predicted on Tuesday, Dixon has to hope for a high turnout of Election Day voters who are heavily Republican if she is going to win," he said.
Mitchell conducted his poll using automated Interactive Voice Response methodology that relies on some landlines. It also sends text messages to other certain likely voters' cell phones that steers them to a SurveyMonkey page.
Whitmer is up 13 points (55% to 42%) among women while Dixon is up 12 (55% to 43%) among men.
Mitchell conceded that the survey under-sampled the Detroit media market. It's traditionally established that the Detroit media market makes up 47% or 48% of the state's voting population, but today's survey only includes 33% from southeast Michigan. Flint and the Tri-Cities had a few additional voters, as did the Lansing-Jackson market.
Mitchell said the 33% is how the numbers came in, but every other demographic came in right -- gender, racial, age and partisan affiliation – so he let it go.
The Mitchell poll comes after a series of other polls in recent days that show Whitmer up anywhere from four to 11 points (See "EPIC Has Whitmer UP 11, Emerson 5, Cygnal 4," 11/3/22).
Real Clear Politics has moved Michigan back into the toss-up category after having it a lean Republican seat a few weeks ago.
Biden Popular Where in Michigan?
You could say that Joe is the Lloyd of politics, because he has spent more time under water than any other president, or so it seems. But in Michigan, despite his overall 42%-54% favorable vs. unfavorable rating, there are voting pockets where the President actually comes up for air, according to the EPIC-MRA data published by The Detroit Free Press and WLNS-6.
The list would include the obvious one: Democrats. 85% like him. After that it is African-Americans at 75% approval, non-college citizens are at 58%-39%. That is compared to a 46%-51% breakdown with college-educated voters.
There are some gender differences. Among men, Biden is at 36% positive and 60% negative. Among women, he's at 48% plus and 49% minus.
