(Source: MIRS.news, Published 07/01/2024) While the number of state House incumbent upsets during both primaries and general elections has varied across election cycles, generally no more than six incumbents have been unseated per election cycle, a MIRS analysis of election day results from 2022 back to 1998 found. 

The exception is the 2010 general election, when nine members lost their reelection bids. 

In total, MIRS has tallied 39 incumbent defeats since 1998, not including several instances where multiple House members were drawn into the same district. 

With Proposal 1 of 2022 amending and extending legislative term limits, only one Michigan House member - Rep. Dale Zorn (R-Onsted) - is term-limited in 2024. Though some current members are vacating seats to run elsewhere, a majority of incumbents are running this year, and of course, more challengers will be attempting to unseat those incumbents. 

Have many such challengers been successful in the past? Not typically, but there are some notable exceptions. 

2022. During the August 2 primaries, four incumbent House members were defeated, starting with former Rep. Terence Mekoski in the newly redrawn 59th District.

Mekoski lost to then-Sen. Douglas C. Wozniak (R-Shelby Township), who received 52 percent of the vote to Mekoski’s 34 percent, after also beating Mekoski during a 2021 special Senate primary. 

Mekoski’s defeat could be attributed to a serious health issue he suffered throughout the summer of 2022, which kept him both off the campaign trail and away from the House floor. 

Former Rep. Rodney Wakeman was also defeated by then political newcomer Matthew BIERLEIN (R-Vassar), who received 60 percent of the vote after redistricting put Wakeman’s political base with Rep. Amos ONEAL (D-Saginaw). Now-Rep. Kimberly Edwards (D-Eastpointe) also knocked off an incumbent, beating former Rep. Richard Steenland in the 12th District. 

During the 2022 general election, two incumbents lost in close races - former Reps. Alex GARZA, who was beaten by James DeSana (R-Carleton), and Jack O’Malley, who was unseated by Betsy COFFIA (D-Traverse City). 

Both defeats took place despite Garza and O’Malley having outraised their opponents. 

2020. During the 2020 primaries, there were no incumbents defeated. 

But during the general election, there were two incumbents unseated - former Reps. Brian Elder and Sheryl Kennedy. 

Elder was defeated by Timothy Beson (R-Bay City), who won 57 percent to 43 percent and raised $301,554 in Republican money, flipping the seat for the first time since 1974. 

Democrat Kennedy was unseated by Rep. David Martin (R-Davison) by about 500 votes, and despite House Republicans “giving up” on the seat in October and Kennedy outspending Martin. 

2018. During the 2018 primary, there were two incumbents that were defeated. 

Former Rep. Lori Stone beat former Rep. Patrick Green in the 28th House District by 475 votes, which she attributed to extensive door knocking on the campaign trail. 

Minority Floor Leader Matt Hall (R-Kalamazoo) entered the Legislature in 2018 as well, when his National Rifle Association (NRA) backing helped propel him to beat former Rep. Dave Maturen in the 63rd District. 

In the 2018 general election, then-Rep. Jeff Noble was the only incumbent to fall, losing to now-Rep. Matt Koleszar (D-Plymouth) in Plymouth, 53 percent to 47 percent. 

2016. The only incumbent who lost in 2016 was former Rep. Bill LaVoy, who was beaten in the general election by now-Senator Joseph Bellino JR. (R-Monroe). 

2014. Former Rep. Frank Foster was the sole incumbent unseated during the 2014 primaries, losing to Lee Chatfield in the 107th District. 

In the 2014 general election, Democratic Reps. Colleen LaMonte and Theresa Abed both lost. Abed was unseated by now-Congressional candidate Tom Barrett. 

2012. During the 2012 primaries, Kurt Damrow, who made headlines for being kicked out of his local Republican Party and facing charges of filing a false report, was beaten by Dan GRIMSHAW. 

And in the 2012 general election, Matt Huuki, Holly Hughes, Mark Ouimet, Roy Schmidt and Deb Shaugnessy all lost. 

2010. While no incumbents were defeated in the 2010 primaries, there were nine members who lost reelection bids during the 2010 general election, including Terry Brown, Kate Ebli, Marty Griffin, Jennifer Haase, Deb Kennedy, Mike Huckleberry, Judy Nerat, Sarah Roberts and Dan Scripps. 

2008. During the 2008 primaries, Ted Hammon was defeated by Davison photographer Jim Slezak, 54 to 46 percent, after Slezak put $30,000 of his own money into the race and distributed large quantities of yard signs and mailers. 

No incumbents lost during the 2008 general election. 

2006. While no incumbents lost during the primaries, former Reps. Rick Baxter, Leslie Mortimer and David Farhat were unseated during the general election. 

2004. While no incumbents lost during the primaries, former Rep. Jennifer Elkins was defeated by Tim Moore and Rep. Matt Milosch lost by 310 votes to Kathy Angerer.

2002. In the primaries, Rep. Belda Garza was the only incumbent to lose when she was knocked off by Steve Tobocman, the executive director of Community Legal Resources in Detroit. In the general, Rep. Patricia Lockwood became the only incumbent to lose a seat when she was defeated by former Rep. Dave Robertson (R-Grand Blanc) by 506 votes. The X-Factor appears to have been Green Party candidate Peter Ponzetti, who managed 549 votes or 1.6 percent.

2000. No incumbents lost in the primaries or the general election.

1998. No incumbents lost in the primaries or the general election.