(Source: MIRS.news, Published 11/10/2022) Underfunded, unknown and untested gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon wasn't able to connect with middle of the road voters on issues like transgender athletes in sports and it cost Republicans majorities in the House and Senate, according to an analysis from the Michigan Republican Party's own chief of staff.
Paul Cordes wrote in a brutally blunt debriefing memo that the Michigan Republican Party found itself consistently navigating the power struggle between former President Donald Trump and anti-Trump factions within the party's donor class.
The power struggle ended with too many people on the sidelines and hurt Republicans in key races, Cordes continued. The lack of funders created a money gap that allowed the well-funded Gov. Gretchen Whitmer campaign and her allies to frame uncontested the abortion issue as one in which Dixon was too extreme on the issue. It also motivated women and young voters to show up to the polls in large numbers.
"The hole created by Tudor at the top of the ticket was too much to overcome," said Cordes, the chief of staff for Michigan Republican Party Chair Ron Weiser, who is not running for another term.
Dixon, stung by the analysis shot back on Twitter by writing, "This is the perfect example of what is wrong with the @MIGOP. It's an issue of leadership -- Ron Weiser, Meshawn Maddock, and Paul Cordes all refuse to take ownership for their own failures."
This is the perfect example of what is wrong with the @MIGOP. It’s an issue of leadership - Ron Weiser, Meshawn Maddock, and Paul Cordes all refuse to take ownership for their own failures. pic.twitter.com/QExnk4l6mZ
— Tudor Dixon (@TudorDixon) November 10, 2022
The Cordes memo gave political observers an unvarnished look under the hood of the Republican Party during the campaign.
The Chief of Staff conceded that the Republicans' own internal polling showed that Dixon was down 14.7 percentage points Oct. 8-9, which she was able to cut to 8.9% percentage points by Oct. 20-23. The hope was that if she could cut the deficit to 3-4 points, they could keep the state House and Senate, but at 7-8 points, "we were in danger of losing one or both chambers."
"Unlike some pollsters, we never showed her within striking distance," Cordes wrote.
Independent voters were turned off by the top of the ticket, which included Matt DePerno as the Attorney General nominee and Kristina Karamo as the Secretary of State nominee. Inflation, gas prices and other bread-and-butter issues weren't used enough.
"We did not have a turnout problem," Cordes wrote. "Middle of the road voters simply didn't like what Tudor was selling."
Numbers from Ed Sarpolus from Target Insyght bear this out. His analysis shows that 216,858 Republican-leaning independents stayed home on Election Day. He said Dixon did about 215,000 voters better than 2018 nominee Bill Schuette among the Republican base.
He said Republican base voter turnout improved 6.57 percentage points from 2018 to 2022. Democratic base voter turnout improved 3.29 percentage points from 2018 to 2022.
All independent voters? They were down a combined 9.86 percentage points.
"Independents were not happy with their choices and those leaning toward the GOP weren't motivated by Proposal 3," Sarpolus said. "The Democrats were truly motivated to vote with only a few Democrats unhappy with their choices."
Republican consultant John YOB said the numbers speak for themselves. She underperformed the base GOP legislative vote by 9 percentage points.
"Her campaign was over the day she made the now infamous mistake in describing her no exceptions policy as applying to an uncle raping a young niece," Yob said. "Her response was not only wrong, but it lacked empathy like Mike Dukakis' famous debate screwup with Vice President George Bush.
"'Perfect example, will go down in the history books as the worst verbal mistake since George Romney was supposedly brainwashed by Vietnam," Yob said.
In response to Dixon's quote, Democratic Ingham County Commissioner Thomas Morgan quipped, "What if you were the least qualified candidate in history *and* the MIGOP is "co-led" by a crazed cultist and a rich old cuck? Both things can be true! No sense in fighting about it."
