(Source: MIRS.news, Published 02/16/2024) Generative artificial intelligence chatbot programs have started revolutionizing how data could impact elections by helping determine how people vote. But one political analyst said, while currently helpful, the technology is still young and far from perfect.
Mark Grebner, of Practical Political Data, said he recently started paying the $20 subscription fee for OpenAI’s ChatGPT 4.0, which he has used to solve an equation he has found difficult and help him run through whatever data he feeds it.
“I give it the data and it runs the analysis, and if I have done it exactly right and have asked the questions in the right order, it gives me back a very nice table of coefficients,” he said.
However, there are still problems that exist with the version of AI he was using. He said it would frequently be unable to give him the data he was seeking, but not because it hadn’t calculated it, but because it had lost it, but not like the absentminded professor.
“It’s more like a grad student that really knows a lot of stuff and also smokes too much dope,” Grebner said. “In some ways, quite impressive and in other ways, you just really couldn’t leave it to its own devices because it just wouldn’t do anything useful.”
Other problems that pop up frequently are known as AI hallucinations. They are where the AI puts in nonexistent patterns, creates nonsense or inaccurate outputs, or even adds data that it just decides to make up or pull from dubious sources. IBM describes AI hallucinations as being similar to how humans see shapes in clouds or a face on the moon.
Grebner said he had returns where ChatGPT added educational and age data to his data sets that were never asked, but just assumed by the AI because of the data it was being fed.
“It doesn’t so much hallucinate, it just begins babbling,” he said.
Grebner said to use ChatGPT the person needs to truly know the subject they are dealing in, because the computer can be deceptively confident in the answer.
“God knows what you’ll get if you start believing what it tells you,” he said.
He likened some of the hallucinations to a grad student that waited too long to turn in a paper and halfway through just decided to throw in a “yada, yada, yada.”
Despite the problems, which are still being worked on in various beta versions of the AI, he said it has been extraordinarily useful. He is able to check the outputs against “certain internal consistencies” that the AI bot wouldn’t know about because it is not attached to his data set.
He said he could see personal AI assistants that he would be able to train with his legendary mountain of data within the next two years.
“That would be really neat if it started thinking through the quest of ‘What relationship can I find in this data that is useful,’” he said.
He said he could ask it to figure out how people decide to vote.
“That is kind of like playing chess and, of course, chatbots now play really great chess, so it’s possible that it’ll be able to do that,” he said.
However, it wasn’t there, yet.
It was in the position to replace that grad student that smoked too much pot and forgot to turn in his paper to his professor.
“It spends a fair amount of time thinking about what I’m asking it to do and then if it just wouldn’t lose the damn results it would make things a lot easier for me,” Grebner said.
To illustrate the problems with functionality with ChatGPT that were pointed out by Grebner, MIRS asked ChatGPT 3.5 to write an article based on the provided interview. The article below is what was returned within seconds.
Generative AI Could Change Future Political Campaigns
Lansing, Mich. (AP) — In a landscape where political campaigns are increasingly driven by data analysis and targeted messaging, the emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) presents both opportunities and challenges for strategists.
Mark Grebner, a seasoned political consultant based in Michigan, has been exploring the potential of AI in his work, providing insight into how this technology could reshape the political landscape.
Grebner, known for his innovative approaches to campaign strategy, described generative AI as akin to "a grad student that really knows a lot of stuff and also smokes too much dope." He highlighted its capabilities, noting that while impressive in certain aspects, it still requires guidance to yield useful outcomes.
"ChatGPT 4.0 turns out to some functionality that I find really useful," Grebner shared. "I actually talk to it fairly often and have long discussions in the middle of the night."
Grebner's interest in AI stems from the vast dataset he possesses, detailing the voting behaviors of Michigan residents in past elections. Traditionally, solving the complex equations necessary for predictive analysis required hiring brilliant graduate students. However, Grebner found that ChatGPT 4.0 could potentially streamline this process.
"I give it the data and it runs the analysis," Grebner explained. "But if I have done it exactly right and have asked the questions in the right order, it gives me back a very nice table of coefficients."
However, Grebner also acknowledged the limitations of current AI capabilities. He expressed concerns about AI "babbling" or providing incorrect calculations when faced with certain inquiries. Additionally, he noted instances where the AI inserted variables such as income and educational status into equations, despite lacking relevant data.
Despite these challenges, Grebner remains optimistic about the potential of AI in political analysis. He highlighted its ability to uncover new insights and patterns that may elude human strategists, potentially revolutionizing campaign tactics.
"I think that we're going to end up with a bunch of insights into predicting behaviors that we never thought about before," Grebner asserted. "And so it will start saying things like you notice that these people this is how they vote."
As AI technology continues to advance, its integration into political campaigns could usher in a new era of data-driven strategy. While challenges remain, the potential for AI to enhance the effectiveness of political messaging and outreach is undeniable, marking a significant development in the evolving landscape of political campaigning.
