(Source: MIRS.news, Published 10/02/2024) Only three Michigan counties voted for the last two winning presidential candidates -- Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 and Republican Donald Trump in 2016. 

Kent, Leelanau and Saginaw counties are those three counties, and of those, only Saginaw has voted for the eventual winner in Michigan in every election since 1992. 

Bottom line: If you want a sneak peek at who is likely to win Michigan in November, keep your eyes on Saginaw. 

“Race, ethnicity, union, non-union, urban, suburban, ex-urban, rural and farmland make up Michigan’s quilt of voters and Saginaw has it all,” said Ed Sarpolus of Target Insyght, who drilled into this data even further. 

Of the 1,532 municipalities in Michigan in charge of running a local election, in only 50 did Biden win in 2020 after Trump won in 2016. 

The “Tier One” municipalities, those with results closest to the eventual result in Michigan, were Oronoko Township in Berrien County, Arcadia Township in Manistee, Brownstown Township in Wayne County, Chikaming Township in Berrien County and DeWitt Township in Clinton County. 

The cities with election results closest to those in Michigan were Wyandotte, Burton, Monroe, Port Huron and Sylvan Lake. 

Other interesting data collected by Sarpolus includes: 

- Grand Rapids saw a 15,524-vote increase for the Democratic nominee in 2020, more than any other city in the state. Other cities that saw a voting boost for the Democratic nominee in 2020 were Canton Township (8,899), Ann Arbor (8,118), Livonia (7,595), Warren (6,987), Lansing (6,764), Troy (6,677), Sterling Heights (6,111) and Detroit (6,111) 

- Sterling Heights saw the biggest increase in votes for Trump with 6,966 votes, followed by Macomb Township (6,461), Detroit (5,207), Shelby Township (4,280) 

- HD-27, represented by Rep. Jaime Churches (D-Wyandotte) in Downriver, is the House District where the results of the presidential election most closely resembled what happened statewide. 

The other House districts where the presidential numbers most closely resembled the eventual statewide numbers were HD-83 (Fitzgerald), HD-109 (Hill), HD-54 (Steele), HD-31 (Miller), HD-103 (Coffia) and HD-38 (Andrews). 

All but one of those seven House districts went to Democratic candidates in 2020. 

- The most bellwether communities are in the 103rd House District with Garfield Township, Peninsula Township, Lake Township, Elmwood Township and Leland Township. 

- Roughly 201,655 more Democrats were turned off from voting in the 2016 election than Republicans. Donald Trump being on the ballot suppressed about 156,036 Republicans from voting in 2020, Sarpolus said.