A couple months ago, as many as 20-some seats were possible-wins for either party, but political inertia being what it is, both Republicans and Democrats have cut their losses to where we are now. Based on where the R's and D's are spending their money, it's down to about eight seats, unless/until one side or the other makes an unexpected play somewhere else.
Obviously, smaller state House seats are more volatile than Senate or Congressional seats. Upsets can and do happen. But the battleground has significantly narrowed. These numbers, combined with base numbers, show Republicans and Democrats each have strong advantages in 51 seats.
Before getting too deep into what's on the board, here's a recap of what's off the board.
Republicans effectively put away the Holland-based 86th for Nancy DeBoer after a $66,000 investment and bad press involving Dem candidate Larry Jackson.
The R's spent $38,289 for Neil Friske in the 107th, a 57% GOP seat, according to The Ballenger Report. The 46th House District is effectively off the board since the implosion of Democrat Maurice Imhoff.
The Democrats are not competing in the Troy/Sterling Heights-based 57th District, which sets up Republican Thomas Kuhn. Republican Alicia St. Germaine is running strong in the Harrison Township-based 62nd District and is as close to a lock as you're going to get.
Republicans also shored up Rep. David Martin (R-Davison)'s 68th House seat with a nearly half-million dollar ad campaign that included running down opponent Cheri Hardmon for having multiple bankruptcy and allegedly not filing a tax return five times.
Rep. Timothy Beson (R-Kawkawlin) also was set up with a $131,776 spend.
On the other side, Democrats made sure Reps. Kelly Breen (D-Novi), Carol Glanville (D-Walker), Jim Haadsma (D-Battle Creek), Rachel Hood (D-Grand Rapids), Matt Koleszar (D-Plymouth Township) and Angela Witwer (D-Delta Township) were taken care of, as well, with Republicans seemingly conceding all six.
Jennifer Conlin is blowing out her HD-48 opponent, Republican Jason Woolford, on TV spending $314,000 to $0. Republicans have done a little internet spending for Dale Biniecki in HD-31, but the D's have a combined $363,524 in TV behind Reggie Miller. Dem-heavy Van Buren Township made this tough for Biniecki, anyway.
The Republicans could possibly make a late run with Bob Howey in HD-27, who to date has done some Facebook videos narrated by his sons. But Jaime CHURCHES and the Democrats are outspending him 10:1 with cable TV buys.
Based on information collected by AdImpact and other online media sites, Democratic interests have spent nearly $2 million on three politically competitive Grand Rapids House seats while Republicans have spent, comparatively, next to nothing.
As it stands now, the former Republican stronghold of Metro Grand Rapids is about to see all of its House seats go to Democrats. Two seats were a tough draw for Republicans. Two are held by well-financed incumbents. In the last one, the 83rd, the Democrats backed up the truck and poured $700,000 into the race.
Republicans are putting their resources behind three Downriver seats and a Macomb County district, but Democrats are contesting all four of those races.
In general, the TV spending up to this point is lopsided in favor of the Democrats. AdImpact has Democrats spending close to $7 million for its candidates on television advertising while Republicans are around $2.5 million.
Some of this is timing in that Republicans buy their TV on a week-to-week basis. Still, the differential is striking and is a trend that's emerging in nearly all of the races outside of John JAMES' congressional bid. Up and down the ballot, Republicans are getting outspent badly.
Here are the eight most competitive House seats, the seats that will determine majority as it stood Oct. 19.
1. 103rd House District - To borrow a poker term, everybody is all in. Democrats and Republicans alike are dumping money into this -- by far -- the most expensive state House election of 2022 . TV spending, alone, is more $1.2 million. The cheaper Traverse City media market is making this an attractive place to spend caucus dollars and that's what they're doing. Rep. Jack O’Malley (R-Lake Ann) versus Betsy Coffia promises to be a sprint to the finish line.
2. 58th House District - With Macomb trending red and John James on the ballot, Republicans see Rep. Nate Shannon (D-Sterling Heights) ripe for the picking. Their latest internet ad ties him to the Rizzo waste hauling scandals. Shannon is reintroducing himself as a former educator who believes in more funding for schools and police. The expensive Detroit media market makes a traditional broadcast buy out of the question for now. The combined TV spending here is north of $500,000.
3. 109th House District - Democrats hope they've hit the floor in terms of sinking base numbers in the Marquette area of the Upper Peninsula. Jenn HILL is introducing herself as someone who paid off her student loan debt over 17 years and worked to keep electricity costs low as a member of the utility board. House Dems have a hit ad out on Republican Melody WAGNER, saying she wants criminal charges against women who seek abortions.
Wagner's positive ad focuses on her roots growing up on a farm and being a police officer. Both sides can spend freely in this cheaper media market.
4. 54th House District - HRCC is hitting "Shady" Shadia Martini for taking out a $40,000 loan and then buying a $2 million mansion shortly thereafter. "Successful business owner" Donnie Steele will reduce inflation, strengthening schools and supporting police, according to the ad. The slogan: "When you need strength, go with Steele."
Forward Majority Michigan Action is using its anti-Republican boilerplate ad that ties Steele to an "extreme group" that wants to ban abortions with no exceptions for rape or incest. They say she needs to "get out of our private lives." They're framing Martini as a "business owner, advocate and a leader" who will bring real solutions and not divisions.
5. 29th House District - Republicans aren't outspending Democrats in many districts, but this is one 's different. The GOP is counting on the pro-Trump sentiment carrying straight down the ticket. At some point, you'd expect more spending to prop up incumbent Rep. Alex GARZA (D-Taylor), but it hasn't happened, yet.
At this point it's the HRCC saying Garza voted to give seized guns back to criminals. The online ad is, "A killer may kill again, thanks to Alex Garza." Meanwhile, the caucus is promoting Jim DeSANA as someone who will "keep our communities safe."
6. 55th House District - Republicans are going negative on Patricia BERNARD, saying the Better Business Bureau looked into whether she "misled the public" with her business dealings. Democrats are going in $327,189 on TV against Rep. Mark TISDEL (R-Rochester Hills). Republicans see a need to soften up Bernard as Rochester continues to trend blue.
7. 38th House District - Joey Andrews' past support for defunding the police is being used against him in the Lake Michigan shoreline district as he tries to change the conversation to ending the retirement tax and using the budget surplus for "working families." Republican Kevin WHITEFORD is being accused of supporting legislation that's being framed as allowing toxic chemicals and PFAS into the Great Lakes.
Whiteford is going on cable this week, but the pro-Andrews side is outspending him 10:1 at this point.
8. 61st House District - Democrats think they can salvage one competitive seat out of Macomb County by framing Mike Aiello in the same "extreme-on-abortion" mold as other Republican House candidates. Republicans say Denise Mentzer voted to raise taxes as a Mt. Clemens city commissioner while collecting $300,000 from taxpayers. They are claiming she was "making bank while breaking ours," but most of the spending right now is coming from Aiello, not the House Republican Campaign Committee, which doesn't project a great deal of confidence.
Other Districts Of Interest
27th House District - The spending is lopsided ($206,885 to $19,614 in favor of Democrat Jaime CHURCHES) but Senate Republicans are spending $1.4 million in the Downriver Senate district with Houston James, which tells us someone is seeing something. If there's a late Republican spending charge, Bob Howey is a potential beneficiary.
83rd House District - By the numbers, the best chance for Republicans to win a Grand Rapids-area House seat is Lisa DeKryger. She's not running against an incumbent, but the Democrats buried the R's in spending, dropping more than $700,000 into GR TV. The total spend is more than for any other candidate. The D's have effectively taken this one, the 81st and the 84th off the board until we see more life out of them.
28th House District - Democrats may be letting go of the rope with Robert Kull in this Downriver/northern Macomb district. With no real Dem money being spent here and Jamie Thompson appearing like Teflon against negative attacks, the trends would appear to be going in the Republicans' direction.
