(Source: MIRS.news, Published Sept. 16, 2022) Over the last 30 or so years , every time the Senate Minority Leader has appeared on Off The Record, he or she has waxed on about how the Democrats will take control of the upper chamber.
They, of course, knew a lot of that was hype, but what else could they say?
Well, this time, with new and supposedly un-gerrymandered Senate districts, a Democrat who would love to be Majority Leader is “feeling incredibly confident.” This time, the hype may be real.
A review of the current Senate districts as drawn by the Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission shows the Democrats start with 16 locks going into the Nov. 8 election. Getting the next three seats to manage a 19-19 split means winning seats that The Ballenger Report has with a Democratic base number over 52%.
Assuming all of those seats are wins, the Democrats would need to win one of the five 50/50 out there to take a clean majority.
Sen. Winnie Brinks (D-Grand Rapids) is feeling confident that her side will do better than even 20 seats.
"I think we are well beyond that," Brinks reported. "We will win with more than that. Our fundraising numbers are great. Our door-knocking is great" and so are her line-up of candidates as she expects to see "22 or 23" Democrats in the winner's circle come Nov. 9.
During those door-knocking excursions, she told the Off The Record panel that voters are referencing two things most often. (1) Abortion and (2) "Are you a Democrat? Because I'm not voting for a Republican."
"Donald Trump is a problem nationally and around the world," she opined.
She added when voters talk about a woman's right to choose, they put it in the context of, "I have a daughter." The Senator feels that is a "motivating factor" that could push her side over the majority finish line for the first time in 38 years.
In case you missed her optimism, she asserted, "We are the favored caucus to take control of the Michigan Senate. We are feeling so good about all of our candidates."
The Republicans start with 14 locks, but if all of their incumbents win, they're at 18. At that point, all they need to do is win two of three true 50/50 seats to get to 20 seats.
The Jackson-based and Downriver seats that the R's thought might be in play earlier in the year aren't looking as great, which put the focus on saving incumbents like Sen. Michael D. MACDONALD (R-Sterling Heights), who in a 54.7% Democratic seat, according to the numbers from The Ballenger Report.
Also, the word on the street is Sen. Mark Huizenga (R-Walker) is finding himself in a dogfight in the new 30th House District with Rep. David LaGrand (D-Grand Rapids), who is reportedly working hard on the doors in a West Michigan region that is tiring of Donald Trump.
Democrats have only one marginal incumbent to defend in Sen. Rosemary Bayer (D-Beverly Hills), who has never represented a vast majority of the district and has a lot of get-to-know-you stuff to do.
Republicans have at least three marginal incumbents in MacDonald, Huizenga and Sen. Jon Bumstead (R-Newaygo).
At one point, one inside source said the Senate Republicans were thinking they would "hit it out of the park" on maintaining Senate control. Now, the question is "How wide will the margin be?"
Another source reported that the concern level for the next expected Republican leader, Aric Nesbitt (R-Lawton), is between a five and a six on a 10 scale.
"It is shaping up to be a dogfight and the red wave may be diminished," said the source.
Former President Donald Trump's Oct. 1 visit to Warren may be a boost to MacDonald or Rep. Pamela Hornberger (R-Chesterfield Twp.) of Macomb County, but Trump isn't as popular in the nearby Oakland County seat that former Rep. Mike Weber is trying to win.
