(Source: MIRS.news, Published 11/03/2022) The number of women 35 years old and younger who applied for absentee ballots through Oct. 31 has nearly tripled since Michigan's last midterm election, which is a reason one election expert is projecting a 10,000-20,000 increase in young women voters in the 2022 election.
In 2018, 48,177 women aged 18-35 applied for an absentee ballot, according to an analysis from Practical Political Consulting (PPC). In 2022, that number was 134,582. This increase is not an apples-to-apples comparison, though, because the pandemic year of 2020 dramatically changed voting habits and no-reason absentee voting did not exist in 2018.
However, PPC's longtime data-list expert and political consultant Mark Grebner said the increase is “not nothing” and speaks to an increase in enthusiasm among this segment of voters. The Secretary of State is expecting around 4 million votes to be cast. This increase would be equal to .5% of that total, which could make an impact in a tight election.
"That includes guesstimates of corresponding increases of walk-in voters, additional voters of higher ages, and a scattering of additional males who will be motivated," he said.
After Roe v. Wade was overturned Jun. 24 eliminating the federal safeguard around abortion access, political observers began anticipating an influx in new female voters.
This year's gubernatorial race in Michigan will be the first one with two women competing from both major parties. Democratic incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has zealously campaigned on abortion access, informing crowds about her fight to secure reproductive freedoms for her daughters and generations to come.
During the Oct. 29 rally with former President Barack Obama in Detroit, which attracted approximately 3,000 attendees, Whitmer expressed in her remarks "if you don't think the right to choose is an economic issue, you don't have a uterus."
Meanwhile Republican challenger Tudor Dixon's campaign rhetoric has continuously returned to its centerpiece – her being a mother of four young daughters. This perspective has surfaced when discussing her anti-abortion philosophy, and especially when focusing on educational issues, whether it be frustrations toward pandemic learning loss or concerns of curriculum and library books being over-sexualizing.
According to the Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP), women do appear to have maintained an edge when it comes to showing up for voting. For example, in 2018, 55% of eligible female voters participated in their respected midterm elections across the U.S. – while the turnout was less than 52% for eligible male voters.
In 2014, the differences were 43% for women and 40.8% for men, and 46.2% for women and 44.8% for men in 2010.
Additionally in Michigan, according to Democratic political data firm TargetSmart, more than 56% of the absentee ballots cast in Michigan out of at least 1.2 million reportedly came from women, and 43.5% came from men.
Even in 2018, before Proposal 3 of 2018 enshrined no-excuse absentee voting into Michigan's constitution, women still made up 56.5% of absentee voters and men made up 43.5%.
However, with multiple competitive races depending on women voters, whether they be single ladies or suburban mothers, a question remains: will their presence be a splash or a tsunami?
"I think one of the big unknowns of this moment is how many people are inspired to vote because all of a sudden rights they thought would always be there are hanging by a thread. I don't know how to answer that question," Whitmer said to the media while on the campaign trail in Lansing earlier this week. "We're just making the assumption that there are a lot of people who have not yet cast their ballot that we need to reach."
During Obama's rally at Renaissance High School in Detroit, 35 year-old Democratic voter Bree Cady of Howell said she believes new voters this year are "actually probably more motivated than the rest of us."
Cady mentioned the August primary election in Kansas, where voter turnout was projected to be around 36% and came in at more than 47%. In a 59% to 41% margin, Kansas voters defeated a constitutional amendment effort that would remove the Kansas constitution's protections around abortion.
Because of Proposal 3, Michigan will be one of five states across the U.S. with a ballot measure related to abortion this month.
"Independents didn't even have anybody on the ballot in that election, and they came out in droves just for Roe," said Cady at the Obama event, referencing Kansas.
When asked what issue was at the top of her mind, Cady said it was obviously reproductive rights.
"We talk about it as reproductive rights, but I think what we really forget is that reproductive rights are just human rights," she said. "With the way that the political atmosphere has been for such a long time, I think people forget that humans are humans, and everyone has their own human aspect to their life."
